The NFL features a ton of year-over-year turnover, and that’s especially true in the postseason.
Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams have made the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, and there’s been at least four new postseason teams in each of the past 34 years.
So, which teams will crash the party this season, and which ones could be a surprise miss? Let’s break it down and find some betting values.
Team to make the playoffs: Seahawks (+180, DraftKings)
After making the playoffs in 2022, the Seahawks narrowly missed out last year. They finished 9-8, tied with the Packers, but Green Bay entered the fold on tiebreakers.
However, I’m high on Seattle to return to the playoffs in head coach Mike Macdonald’s first season.
Macdonald coordinated a historic defense last year in Baltimore, where the Ravens became the first team in NFL history to complete the triple crown. They led the league in fewest points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60) and takeaways (31).
Seattle has talent at every level of the defense, with young defensive backs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon leading the way.
Seattle’s offense also stands to improve under new coordinator Ryan Grubb, who helped orchestrate Michael Penix Jr.’s near-Heisman season last year at Washington.
Expect Grubb to emphasize play-action passing, increased tempo and creativity in the red zone, all of which will help Geno Smith. So, too, will improved health on an offensive line that couldn’t stay on the field last year.
The Seahawks play in a rugged NFC West and have a schedule that ranks middle of the road, but don’t be shocked to see a massive improvement in Seattle and a return to the postseason.
Team to miss the playoffs: Cowboys (+170, BetMGM)
The Cowboys have won exactly 12 games for three straight seasons, two of which resulted in NFC East titles.
However, this year presents a potential downside for a team saddled with the league’s 11th-toughest schedule based on projected Vegas win totals, per Sharp Football.
Dak Prescott had a career year in 2023, nearly winning MVP, but did so against the easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Dallas’ slate ratchets up this year, and it doesn’t help that the offense lost left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz.
Brock Hoffman, the projected replacement at center, has played limited snaps since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022.
Rookie Tyler Guyton made one career start at left tackle at Oklahoma in an offense that rarely utilized traditional three-step dropbacks.
The defense could also regress after losing coordinator Dan Quinn and secondary coach Joe Whitt Jr.
Dallas has lived on an unsustainable turnover rate for the past few seasons.
Per Sharp Football, the Cowboys led the NFL by a wide margin with +130 EPA gained on takeaways, which should come back to earth under new leadership.
Betting on the NFL?
It’s not all bad news for Dallas after Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were among the most profitable QB-WR duos in the league last year.
However, there’s a reason the Cowboys’ win total sits at 9.5, and I see a world where they’re fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the season.
