Mark Cannizzaro previews the AFC West as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Andy Reid
2023 record: 11-6 | O/U wins: 11.5
Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley
Key departures: QB Blaine Gabbert, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB La’Mical Perine, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards
First-and-goal: Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce. Andy Reid. Chris Jones. The core of the back-to-back Super Bowl champions remains in force. Now, add Brown and Worthy to the receiving corps and you have an even stronger offensive force. The defense returns almost entirely intact after Jones, an All-Pro DT, signed a five-year, $158.75 million contract in March. The biggest change will be on offense, where the Chiefs worked hard to revamp what was one of the least-productive groups of wide receivers in the NFL last season.
Fourth-and-long: The trade of Sneed and departure of Gay leave the Chiefs slightly thinned on defense, but never count out coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spags, though, would like to improve on the 17 turnovers his unit forced last season, which ranked 27th. Brown hurt his shoulder in the preseason opener and may not be ready for Week 1. There also are questions about whether WR Rashee Rice will be available, given his legal trouble in Texas and potential NFL suspension.
Prediction: 13-5. The additions at receiver will only enhance Mahomes’ greatness.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Coach: Jim Harbaugh
2023 record: 5-12 | O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: RB Gus Edwards, RB J.K. Dobbins, WR DJ Chark Jr., TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, DE Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton, S Tony Jefferson, OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey
Key departures: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, WR Jalen Guyton, TE Nick Vannett, TE Gerald Everett, DE Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis, CB Essang Bassey
First-and-goal: Harbaugh has to right the shaky ship Brandon Staley ran before being fired. Based on his track record, Harbaugh’s presence should bring a spike in performance — as should healthy QB Justin Herbert.
Fourth-and-long: Something to watch will be how the Chargers operate under OC Greg Roman, who’s had success with mobile QBs (Colin Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson), but Herbert is not that type. Harbaugh, too, was a run-first coach at Michigan. How this shakes out will be interesting. There is much to do to improve on defense, where the Chargers ranked 28th in yards allowed (6,170) last season, including 30th in passing yards (4,246). The Chargers haven’t won a division title since 2009 and made only three trips to the playoffs during former GM Tom Telesco’s 10-plus seasons.
Prediction: 10-7. Harbaugh replacing Staley and Herbert healthy could make the Chargers the biggest turnaround team in the league this season.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
Coach: Antonio Pierce
2023 record: 8-9 | O/U wins: 6.5
Key additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins, TE Brock Bowers, G Jackson Powers-Johnson
Key departures: QBs Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Hunter Renfrow, WR DeAndre Carter, TE Austin Hooper, DE Bilal Nichols, DE Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson, CB Tyler Hall
First-and-goal: The Raiders went 5-4 after Pierce was hired, and that was no coincidence. Pierce, a motivator, is a breath of fresh air. Under Pierce’s watch, the Raiders averaged 22.9 points per game, a noticeable improvement from the 15.8 they managed under previous coach Josh McDaniels. The Raiders hope WR Davante Adams and the addition of Bowers will help boost an offense that was ranked 27th in total yards last season.
Fourth-and-long: The Raiders have one of the most unsettled QB situations in the league. Aidan O’Connell and Minshew are serviceable, but underwhelming. The departure of Jacobs opens the door for Zamir White as the lead back. White lacks experience and has had limited involvement in the passing game.
Prediction: 9-8. The team’s mediocre record will be a reflection of the mediocre QBs on its depth chart.
4. Denver Broncos
Coach: Sean Payton
2023 record: 8-9 | O/U wins: 5.5
Key additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Josh Reynolds, DE John Franklin-Myers, NT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, CB Levi Wallace, QB Bo Nix
Key departures: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, C Lloyd Cushenberry III, TE Chris Manhertz, DT Jonathan Harris, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, CB Fabian Moreau
First-and-goal: Nix, the No. 12 overall pick, looked so good this summer Payton had no choice but to name him the starter. The entire season hinges on his development, but it’s something Denver fans can’t wait for after the Wilson mess last season.
Fourth-and-long: The Broncos’ skill position players don’t scare many defenses, and that could stunt Nix’s development. With Jeudy traded, Courtland Sutton is their top receiver. Returning RB Javonte Williams was the lead back last season, and he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry and had injury issues. The Broncos’ roster is thin in part because of the $53 million in dead cap charges from the Wilson release. They, too, lost a lot of leadership with the exits of Simmons, Cushenberry and Jewell.
Prediction: 6-11. Broncos take steps backward as they try to develop Nix without a strong enough supporting cast.
