Pipe dream?
Researchers say that 1.2 million lung cancer deaths worldwide could be prevented over 70 years by banning the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products to people born between 2006 and 2010.
“Lung cancer is a major killer worldwide, and a staggering two-thirds of deaths are linked to one preventable risk factor — tobacco smoking,” said study author Julia Rey Brandariz of the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain.
“Our modeling highlights how much there is to gain for governments considering the implementation of ambitious plans towards creating a tobacco-free generation,” Brandariz added. “Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, it could massively reduce the strain on health systems of treating and caring for people in ill health as a result of smoking.”
Brandariz’s first-of-its-kind simulation study — published Wednesday in The Lancet Public Health — suggests that creating a mini tobacco-free generation could prevent 40% of the lung cancer deaths expected to occur in this group by 2095.
The researchers say they selected this group, whose members are currently 13 to 18 years old, because the legal age for buying tobacco products is 18 in most of the countries included in the analysis.
Banning tobacco sales to these Gen Zers would have the greatest impact on Europe, according to the study.
“While rates of smoking in high-income countries have fallen in recent years, lung cancer remains a leading cause of death and disease,” said study author Isabelle Soerjomataram of the International Agency for Research on Cancer.
“In low- and middle-income countries, which have rapidly growing populations of young people, the impact of banning tobacco sales could be even greater,” Soerjomataram continued.
But nurse practitioner Jennifer Stevens, director of the Northwell Health Center for Tobacco Control, expressed doubt the proposal could come to fruition.
“There is no question that prevention and elimination of the sale of tobacco cigarettes would increase mortality and decrease healthcare costs globally,” Stevens, who is not involved with the new research, told The Post. “However, for decades legislators have tried to go up against tobacco companies with some, but not full success.”
Stevens said focus should remain on enforcement, continuation and implementation of policies that ban smoking in public areas as well as on education programs, especially for younger generations, that emphasize the dangers and long-term effects of smoking.
The new research accompanies a separate study published Wednesday in The Lancet Public Health that indicates that reducing smoking prevalence from current levels to 5% around the world by 2050 would result in an extra year of life expectancy for men and 0.2 years for women.
The international team of researchers predicts that global life expectancy will rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.3 years in 2050.
It’s estimated that after adjusting for age, 21% of men and 4% of women will smoke in 2050, with considerable variation by region.
The study authors say that if smoking had been completely eliminated last year, life expectancy could rise 1.5 more years for men and 0.4 years for women in 2050.
Smoking is considered the leading preventable cause of death in the US — it’s responsible for about 1 in 5 deaths each year, according to the American Cancer Society.
Besides lung cancer, smoking greatly increases the risk of heart disease, stroke, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
The researchers noted various limitations to the two modeling studies, including not taking into account the possible health effects of e-cigarettes and potential healthcare innovations, such as better lung cancer detection or treatment.
