Prime-time games have become notorious for low-scoring football, and “Thursday Night Football” is no exception.
Thursday night Unders have hit a 60.2% clip over the past six years.
While “TNF” games have produced five Overs and four Unders this season, a glance at the injury report for this matchup will show you why the market is beginning to buy back on the Under.
The Ravens come into this matchup off a big bounce-back win over the Broncos.
Baltimore’s offensive prowess was on full display, but it will struggle to replicate that success against the Bengals.
Cincinnati’s defense came into the season underrated but has become one of the best units against the rush. The Bengals rank sixth in the NFL in yards per rush allowed.
The Bengals will have much to contend with in the ground game, as Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have combined to give the Ravens the best rushing attack in football.
However, Jackson is banged up, dealing with multiple injuries, and Henry has sometimes become nonexistent if the game script does not fall in favor.
Baltimore has also been excellent through the air.
The connection between Jackson and Zay Flowers is undeniable.
However, according to Pro Football Focus’s grades, Cincinnati should also have an answer there as well, as Flowers is the only pass catcher with an above-average matchup.
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On the other side of the ball, we will see how injuries compound issues in a short week.
The Bengals have a bevy of injuries to their offensive line, are down to Chase Brown and the newly acquired Khalil Herbert at running back, and will likely be without wide receiver Tee Higgins.
Joe Burrow overcame these issues last week by putting on an aerial display.
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Burrow and Co. should find success against a hampered Ravens secondary that ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed and 19th in opponent completion percentage.
However, it may not be as easy, as they won’t get much going on the ground.
As mentioned, the Bengals offensive line is in dire straits, and the Ravens have allowed the lowest yards per rush in football, while the Bengals are 20th in yards before contact.
With the rushing attack under wraps, the Ravens should be able to emphasize wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and tight end Mike Gesicki, both of whom have above-average matchups.
Getting this Under at the current number will be advantageous as we should see it fall closer to the Sunday opener (50.5).
The market’s initial move up is warranted as there is excellent offensive talent, and these two teams combined for 79 points in their Week 5 matchup, a 41-38 Ravens win in overtime in Cincinnati.
All the factors broken down above point to this second meeting having very different results.
THE PLAY: Bengals-Ravens Under 53 (-125, BetMGM).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Ziefel has been betting for more than a decade, and with U.S. operators in his native New Jersey since the market launched in 2018. He helps new bettors get the most out of their sportsbook promos and welcome offers for the New York Post.
