The secret dash to war-torn Kyiv. The impassioned speech before Warsaw castle, the emblem of Poland rebuilt after war and occupation. Joe Biden’s trip to Europe this week had one unmissable message: this US president will stand with democratic Ukraine for as long as it takes.
But the more important question for Kyiv might be: will America?
Back home, Biden is seeing a political consensus on Ukraine begin to fray. Once rock-solid support for supplying Ukraine with weapons and money is softening. A war that united America is increasingly being portrayed along partisan lines ahead of next year’s elections.
Victory would never be Putin’s, Biden declared in Warsaw. But for all the rhetoric, Biden decided against elaborating on important questions that are increasingly preoccupying Washington: what Russia’s failure might resemble, what the ceiling of America’s support might be and whether there was any inkling of the “end state” the US might seek.
“Biden has yet to define a clear goal for our policy and he has yet to describe clearly to Americans in plain language, why we should be making the effort,” said John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine.
That sense of an end point, of a goal on the horizon, is likely to become increasingly important as public support starts to falter. Promises of unwavering, indefinite support play less well in the heartlands of American than they do in Ukraine.
A recent Pew Research Center poll found that the share of adults who say the US is providing too much assistance to Ukraine has increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points since shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine last year.
The shift, according to Pew’s research, can be mostly attributed to the growing share of Republicans who have started to question America’s generosity with Kyiv. That trend might only accelerate as America moves into election season.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis, a likely Republican candidate in next year’s presidential election, on Monday downplayed the threat Russia poses to the west and Nato. Rather than embrace Ukraine’s cause, he criticised Biden for focusing on borders in Europe, rather than in the US, and described assistance to Kyiv as a “blank-cheque policy”.
Meanwhile, Speaker of the House, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has also questioned how long Washington can sustain its assistance to Ukraine.
For the moment, the pro-Ukraine coalition in Congress remains strong enough to maintain a flow of support to Kyiv. But it will take more effort to hold together. Just as on-air sceptics are becoming more vocal, Ukraine hawks are growing more disgruntled. Republicans such as Michael McCaul, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in Congress, think the administration has been too slow to send Kyiv more offensive weapons.
To juggle this coalition, the Biden administration might be forced to be more forthcoming on one sensitive point: spelling out what a possible end to the conflict might look like. To date, Biden’s team has hesitated to do so for good reason. The administration cannot be seen callously imposing terms on Ukraine as its people shed blood to defend the nation.
But the nuances in outlook between Washington and Ukraine will only be more obvious over time. While Ukrainian officials talk of military victory restoring the nation’s territorial integrity, American officials are less committal. They assess that neither Russia nor Ukraine can achieve their goals on the battlefield this year. For Kyiv to prevail, in their view, will take years, short of a dramatic escalation of military support.
So while Biden’s “as long as it takes” mantra has served Ukraine well to date, some analysts believe more precision will be essential as the debate takes on a more partisan edge.
“The messaging and broader aims are still a bit muddled,” said Rachel Rizzo, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “Supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary, as the administration says, is not the same as giving them all the weaponry they’re asking for or dealing Russia a decisive blow.”
“Those are important distinctions to make,” she added, a point Biden may dwell on after his trip to Kyiv and wartime Europe, as he turns to the battle for public opinion at home.
