The writer is a former senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University
Will the war in Ukraine spill over into a third world war? The short answer is: not unless China lends military support to Russia. Over the past year, Beijing — despite not being involved in this faraway conflict — was nevertheless asked which side it would take, whether it would become a mediator between Russia and the west, and whether it might launch an attack on Taiwan.
This is the price China pays for being a global power. Caught between Russia, its strategic partner, and Ukraine, which counts China as its largest trading partner, Beijing is treading a tightrope. While stressing the importance of sovereignty, China has gently criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it has also emphasised that regional security cannot be strengthened by expanding a military bloc, an explicit rebuke to Nato and its most powerful member, the US.
This position is frowned upon in western capitals as “pro-Russia neutrality”. Beijing and Moscow’s “unlimited” friendship has alarmed the west. But imagine for a moment: if two countries vow to develop their friendship, then how could they place limits on it? Russia is China’s largest neighbour and vice versa. For peaceful coexistence, this relationship must be amicable.
Two of Beijing’s contributions have been particularly under-appreciated. First, not adding fuel to the fire. This war has served to prove that however close China and Russia might be, this is not an alliance. If Beijing takes Moscow’s side in the conflict, then we are already in the dawn of the third world war. This would make the situation far worse than the cold war era, in which the US and the USSR avoided any direct confrontation.
Second, China’s stance against the use of nuclear weapons in Europe has reduced the prospect of a nuclear war, if not entirely ruled it out. No one knows whether Russian president Vladimir Putin was bluffing about using nuclear weapons. But Chinese president Xi Jinping’s public remarks about no use of nuclear weapons should been heard in Moscow.
Looking ahead, escalation of this conflict unfortunately looks inevitable. At last month’s Munich Security Conference, I heard applause whenever Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy or British prime minister Rishi Sunak talked about the need to send more military assistance to Ukraine. Having provided tanks, the west is now talking about sending aircraft. But Russia, even without deploying its nuclear stockpile (which is larger than those of the US, Britain and France combined), cannot lose completely.
This is where China has a role to play. US secretary of state Antony Blinken has suggested that Beijing is considering providing lethal weapons support to Russia. This is impossible. If China sends weaponry of any kind, it won’t go unnoticed. And if Beijing has refused to send any such support to Moscow in the past 12 months, then why should it change its mind now, especially when it has urged a peaceful resolution to the conflict?
Beijing will most likely continue to be neutral. Unlike a small country that risks being unwillingly swept up in the conflict, a strong China can afford to stand its ground. It is also not alone. Most countries in the global south, notably India and South Africa, are similarly unwilling to pick a side.
But Beijing is becoming more constructive. China’s position paper, released on the anniversary of the Russian invasion, is a case in point. This called for all parties to exercise rationality and restraint, as well as to prioritise the effective protection of civilians. Critics may argue that the paper’s call for a resumption of peace talks and an end to unilateral sanctions stops short of being a tangible road map. Of course, there is no guarantee that the proposal would succeed, but no war can last for ever.
It remains to be seen whether China will perform the same role that it has done in the past — as a de facto leader in the six-party talks on denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula, or a participant in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. But Beijing has a unique advantage. If Russia will listen to anyone, it would most probably be China. Beijing is not only talking to Moscow, though — the Chinese ministry of defence recently announced it had sent a delegation for talks with Nato.
The war in Ukraine has nothing to do with China. But the longer it drags on, the more people will look to Beijing as a broker. During the current raging conflict, peaceful settlement may look like a pipe dream. But make no mistake: China’s role is looming ever larger.
