EU keeps the champagne on ice over tentative Serbia-Kosovo deal

Good morning. We have an EU-UK deal on Northern Ireland’s trade status and (maybe, just maybe) we have the end of the beginning of Britain’s post-Brexit psychodrama. My colleagues write that the formal announcement yesterday “felt like a renewal of vows”, while the FT’s editorial board reckons it “holds out the prospect of smoother engagement” across the Channel.

Today, I explain another tentative diplomatic breakthrough on the EU’s fringe: an agreement on an agreement by the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo late yesterday. And, as Finland’s parliament moves to formally approve its Nato bid, we ponder whether we are entering the Nordic membership endgame.

Agreeing to agree

After years of trying to make any kind of progress, negotiators cheer victory in whatever form it comes. Last night’s preliminary agreement between Belgrade and Pristina is a classic of the genre.

Context: 24 years ago the two Balkan states fought a war over Kosovo’s independence. Now they both aspire to become EU members. As a result, Brussels has for the past 12 years sought to normalise relations, which is tough given Serbia refuses to acknowledge its neighbour’s existence as a country.

But after hours of talks last night, mediated by EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell, some form of consensus appeared to break out.

“No further discussions” were required on the content of an EU-backed deal between Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo prime minister Albin Kurti, Borrell said after the meetings.

“They expressed their readiness to proceed with the implementation of the agreement,” he said, while adding the critical follow-up: “but further negotiations are still needed.”

The deal is simple: both countries should acknowledge each other’s passports, car licence plates, qualifications, and things like trade certificates should be mutually accepted.

But how to enforce it? Well, that’s still to be hashed out.

“It is important to agree,” said Borrell. “It is still more important to implement what has been agreed.”

Kurti called it “a good basis for further discussion”. Vučić spoke of a “serious, long, difficult and tiring process”.

Still, it’s a vast improvement from two months ago, when border clashes prompted some to fear conflict could return. And a better outcome than suggested by Borrell’s body language midway through the talks, in this photo shared by Vučić on Instagram.

All three talked of more “shuttle diplomacy” between both capitals in the coming weeks, with another trilateral meeting chaired by Borrell taking place next month.

Last night he was forthright about what failure would mean. Without a fully implemented deal, Borrell said that “neither of the parties can realise their European future”. 

Chart du jour: Reconstruction costs

The earthquake that hit Turkey this month caused $34bn worth of damage, according to an assessment by the World Bank, which said the total cost to rebuild the destroyed regions could be more than twice that figure.

Finnish line?

The seemingly interminable process to get Finland and Sweden into Nato appears to be entering the end game, writes Richard Milne.

Context: Finland’s and Sweden’s Nato applications need the approval of all 30 existing members and, after racing to 28 ratifications, Hungary and Turkey are still waiting. Turkey has said it could approve Finland’s first, even though they applied as a pair.

Finland’s parliament will begin discussing domestic ratification of its Nato application today, with a vote to follow. In another sign of movement, the military alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, also visits Helsinki today for talks with the country’s leadership.

“The vote means that now the process is entirely in the hands of Turkey and Hungary; it’s a signal that Finland is ready to be ratified into Nato as soon possible,” said Henri Vanhanen, research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Hungary has indicated that its parliament will begin looking at the matter next week and vote by the end of March but has delayed things several times already. Turkey is even less predictable — Ankara has hinted that it could perhaps move before its elections in June. But lingering discontent over historic Swedish support for the Kurds is still an issue.

The Finnish parliamentary vote will kick off an intricate dance. It will be followed in mid-March by the first trilateral meeting between Turkey, Sweden and Finland since the burning of a Koran in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm in January derailed talks.

Both Helsinki and Stockholm are desperate to become members by July’s Nato summit in Vilnius.

“March will be a decisive month of careful diplomacy for everyone and a lot is now happening in the background discussions. The primary goal to have Finland and Sweden in by Vilnius remains,” added Vanhanen.

What to watch today

1. Jens Stoltenberg meets with Finland’s prime minister Sanna Marin, arrival statements at 1050.

2. Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko begins a three-day state visit to China.

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