Dan Quinn had a fourth quarter to forget on Thursday night in the Commanders’ 26-18 loss to the Eagles.
In a critical division game, the Washington coach decided not to kick a field goal while facing fourth-and-2 on the Eagles’ 26 and trailing, 12-10.
Star rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels bobbled the fourth down snap before rolling right and being brought down well short of the line to gain and turning it over on downs.
The Eagles scored a touchdown on the ensuing possession on a 23-yard Saquon Barkley run.
After the game, the first-year head coach in Washington explained the decision that spoiled his team’s chances of taking back momentum after Philadelphia had taken the lead for the first time.
“Bold call, but I would also say we were prepared for that moment,” Quinn said. “Don’t love the execution, but we’ve been an excellent fourth-down team, so going into it, we knew we’d have to take our shots against a tough division team on the road.
“We thought that was an appropriate one. Certainly don’t like the execution and the result, but we were prepared for that and being bold in those moments, knowing that we’d have some fourth downs. That’s one we can fix.”
Quinn is correct in his assessment on the team’s impressive fourth down conversion rate.
Washington has the third-best first down percentage on fourth down in the NFL (85.71 percent), behind only the Bills 91.67 percent) and Chiefs (88.89 percent).
Star receiver Terry McLaurin backed his coach’s aggressive attitude after the game.
“We’ve been doing it all season,” McLaurin told reporters. “We’re aggressive.”
Still, the analytics did not favor Quinn’s decision-making.
Ben Baldwin, who is largely considered the gold standard when discussing NFL analytical decisions, broke down how close the decision was on X.
His statistical model projected that the Commanders had a 44 percent chance of winning that game had they decided to kick the field goal, compared to a 42 percent chance of winning when going for it.
Quinn’s go-big or go-home strategy immediately backfired and fans also questioned his late-game clock management with the team eventually trailing by 16 points.
While driving in Eagles territory, the Commanders’ coach decided to run the ball three times in four plays from the 30-yard line with 3:20 left on the clock.
The Commanders went into the two-minute warning, having netted just 15 yards on those plays.
Washington was forced to try an onside kick after scoring a touchdown on the drive, despite having time outs to burn prior to the two-minute warning.
Quinn and the Commanders next face the beat up Cowboys in Week 11. They are now sitting at 7-4 and 1 1 1/2 games behind the 8-2 Eagles for first place in the NFC East.
