Few events are as exciting as visiting your local amusement park to ride a new roller coaster for the first time.
Only, not every roller coaster is a thriller. Sometimes they fail to live up to expectations. Whatever thrills it does offer might not be worth a long wait in a long line. It could be closed for repair already. Maybe it is too bumpy, too slow or too tame.
If life has taught us anything, it is that not every anticipated thrilling experience is actually going to provide thrills.
Fantasy managers might get a taste of such disappointment after this past week’s exciting wide receiver trades — in the short term at least.
Davante Adams was traded by the Raiders to the Jets to reunite with his old Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
Now that is going to be an exciting ride, right? That tandem delivered league-winning production over numerous seasons in Green Bay. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, that tandem hasn’t worked together since 2021 — that is three whole seasons. 2024 Rodgers has yet to look anything like Peak Rodgers of Packers lore — his stats bearing a closer resemblance to those of Zach Wilson than a four-time NFL MVP.
Adams did a good imitation of his Packers days with the Raiders in 2022, but he took a step back last season then fell off a cliff this year before a conveniently timed hamstring injury.
So neither one has looked like their vintage selves recently, and now we expecting both, in the golden years of their NFL careers, to suddenly recapture their youthful production? And we expect them to do it with a team as consistently snakebitten as the Jets?
Look, we don’t really subscribe to the idea of curses or karma or any events of a transcendental nature. But boy, do the Jets make a good argument for becoming superstitious. If ever their was a team battling opponents both real and imagined, that team is the Jets.
Thus, we have grounds for concern about this new incarnation of the Rodgers-Adams connection. Yet, despite these forces acting against it, we don’t hate it either.
Sure, it is going to hurt the ceiling for Garrett Wilson the rest of the season. And yes, it makes Mike Williams imminently droppable in all but the deepest fantasy formats.
But Adams? He has a better chance now of living up to the expectations fantasy managers had at the time they drafted him. Maybe Rodgers gets a small bump, but let’s wait and see.
Speaking of wait and see … you know everything we just said, well stick that in your memory bank and revisit it later, because for this week, we don’t think Adams is going to make a big impact.
Maybe he gets a handful of targets, probably at the expense of Wilson, but we don’t expect Adams to be overly productive. Nevertheless, Wilson could be more efficient in what targets he does get, since he won’t be such a singular focal point of opposing coverage. So we’re not downgrading him just yet.
Adams wasn’t the only marquee wide receiver who got traded this week. Amari Cooper is now in Buffalo. There are a couple of things we like better about this situation:
1. Cooper has not seen a decline in production until this season. Granted, his and Adams’ production was comparable last season, Adams has been on the decline while Cooper has remained steady — in fact, Cooper is coming off a career high 1,250 receiving yards last season.
2. We trust Josh Allen more than Rodgers at this point.
3. There is no one in Buffalo who will battle Cooper for targets. Normally, this would worry us regarding coverage, but with Allen’s ability to extend the play, Cooper will have opportunities to get open regardless of coverage.
Nevertheless, the Bills situation has one distinct similarity to the Jets’: Don’t count on that bump right away — certainly not this week, assuming Cooper even plays.
No doubt, these deals are a new fantasy receiver thrill ride, but you need to wait before riding.
Big Weeks
Drake Maye QB, Patriots, vs. Jaguars (N/A)
Had a nice fantasy debut last week against a vicious Texans pass rush. The Jaguars won’t make it nearly as hard — they give up 8.6 more points per week to QBs than the league average, worst in the NFL.
Austin Ekeler RB, Commanders, vs. Panthers (FanDuel $6,600/DraftKings $5,900)
Brian Robinson Jr. is questionable with a knee issue, so Ekeler could get even more work against a phantom Panthers run defense — league-worst 12.1 more per week in PPR vs. opposing RBs than the average.
Sterling Shepard WR, Buccaneers, vs. Ravens (FD $5,000/DK $3,500)
Mike Evans could be limited or out with a hamstring problem. Expect Shepard to get some additional looks against a Ravens defense that gives up production to WRs.
Joshua Palmer WR, Chargers, at Cardinals (FD $5,200/DK $4,400)
Quentin Johnston (ankle) and Ladd McConkey (hip) ar both questionable. On a team with limited WR options already, Palmer could be a target hog.
Small Weaks
Breece Hall RB, Jets, at Steelers (FD $7,600/DK $6,800)
Re-emerged last week after a pair of awful games. Might be tough to keep it up Sunday against a stout Steelers run defense. Can’t bench him in seasonal league, but can fade him in DFS.
James Conner RB, Cardinals, vs. Chargers (FD $7,700/DK $6,700)
The Chargers have given up just one rushing TD to an RB this season. Combined a slower pace with possibility he gets marginalized by game flow, and this isn’t our favorite Conner week.
Betting on the NFL?
Isaac Guerendo RB, 49ers, vs. Chiefs (FD $6,000/DK $6,600)
With Jordan Mason dealing with a knee problem, many likely picked up Guerendo as a possible fill-in. Not our favorite plan this week. The Chiefs are the league’s stingiest vs. RBs, by more than a full point per week in PPR.
Dalton Kincaid TE, Bills, vs. Titans (FD $6,300/DK $5,000)
Tennessee has surrendered exactly zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends. In fact, they have given up double digits to the opposing team’s TEs just once all season. Tough work, if Kincaid (collarbone) plays.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $15 tourney
Top prize: $300K
Pot: $1.5M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Kirk Cousins, Atl (vs. Sea) $7,200
RB: Saquon Barkley, Phi (at NYG) $9,000
RB: Tony Pollard, Ten (at Buf) $7,100
WR: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Det) $9,400
WR: Darnell Mooney, Atl (vs. Sea) $6,300
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea (at Atl) $6,100
TE: Dalton Schultz, Hou (at GB) $5,200
Flex: Austin Ekeler, Was (vs. Car) $6,600
DEF: Titans, Ten (at Buf) $3,100
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Sam Darnold, Min (vs. Det) $7,500
RB: Kyren Williams, LAR (vs. LV) $8,600
RB: Tony Pollard, Ten (at Buf) $7,100
WR: Tee Higgins, Cin (at Cle) $7,800
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea (at Atl) $6,100
WR: Noah Brown, Was (vs. Car) $5,000
TE: Dalton Schultz, Hou (at GB) $5,200
Flex: Justin Jefferson, Min (vs. Det) $9,400
DEF: Giants, NYG (vs. Phi) $3,200
Late roster changes, check @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on Threads
Season risked: $94
Season’s winnings: Drew $180, Jarad $113.50
