The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season.
Sunday
BROWNS +4 over Chiefs
The advanced stats hate Kansas City and dislike this matchup for it. Jameis Winston and the Browns have a solid offense coming together that could see some success, as the Chiefs defense is bottom five in the NFL against the deep pass.
K.C. allows a 53.3 percent completion rate against deep passes, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL — ahead of just the Giants (60 percent), Panthers (54.8), and Packers (53.8).
Winston is a deep-ball aficionado, so expect plenty of tests against a soft secondary.
Moreover, Cleveland’s defense still has the third-best pass rush, according to PFF.
The Chiefs are getting away with so much right now that it’s too difficult to back them. Cleveland wins outright.
GIANTS +16 over Ravens
At 16 points, this is the biggest spread in the NFL this year, but maybe it’s another Tommy Cutlets showcase. Now, no one is expecting an upset win, and the Giants probably don’t even want one.
But Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have enough talent to keep this within two scores. Their defense — sans Dexter Lawrence — is playing hard and well.
The unit is rated No. 12 according to Pro Football focus.
Jets -3.5 over JAGUARS
This is where I draw the line on disrespect of the Jets.
Much like every week, Gang Green should’ve won last week against a playoff-level team. The same cannot be said about the Jaguars, who are starting Mac Jones at quarterback and have the league’s worst defense according to defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
The Jets finally snag a win and cover this one easily.
The Aaron Rodgers disrespect is getting out of whack, and you can now finally buy a dip on the Jets.
TITANS +5 over Bengals
At some point, the books have to figure out the Titans, right?
Tennessee is the league’s worst team with a painfully bad 2-11 mark against the spread, somehow worse than their overall 3-10 record.
In theory, this matchup stacks up pretty well against the Bengals: The Titans have the 15th-best defense according to DVOA and the 31st-rated offense.
That would equal out in theory, as the Bengals have the league’s second-worst defense, according to DVOA.
It’s not like their defense is improving, either, allowing 6.8 yards per play in their past three games, by far the worst figure in the NFL.
They made Cooper Rush look competent last week in a game they easily could’ve lost.
Commanders -7.5 over SAINTS
Marshon Lattimore makes his Commanders debut against his former team.
New Orleans starts Jake Haener at quarterback, which should be a nightmare, and they have the second-worst run defense, according to DVOA.
How the Saints keep this close is tough to envision. Jayden Daniels runs wild.
Cowboys +3 over PANTHERS
There’s still enough here in Dallas that they shouldn’t be underdogs to the Panthers.
CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle and Micah Parsons are all blue-chip players who are worth betting on as underdogs in this game.
Carolina has the league’s 32-ranked rushing defense (DVOA) and is allowing 5 yards per carry, the most in the NFL.
TEXANS -3 over Dolphins
Miami isn’t what it used to be, and this matchup is too much for them.
The Dolphins are a team built around short passing with their speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Texans love dealing with short passing offenses. They allow the lowest completion percentage is in the NFL on short passes (fewer than 7 air yards).
Miami throws the fifth-most short passes in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the offense.
Houston also grabs the second-most interceptions on short passes, so look for Tagovailoa to struggle a bit in this one.
BRONCOS -4 over Colts
The best offensive line in the NFL is the Broncos.
They have the No. 1 pass block win rate (70 percent).
Indianapolis doesn’t possess the talent on either side of the ball to win or cover this game at Mile High.
Indianapolis has the 22nd-rated offense on DVOA. Don’t waste your money on the Colts, spread it on Denver.
LIONS -2.5 over Bills
The marquee game of the week comes up for the Bills in enemy territory.
Both teams have aspirations to make the Super Bowl but have shown some kinks in their armor.
The better offensive line and defense should take this one home, as Detroit plays ball control on the Bills.
Eventually, someone other than Josh Allen will have to win.
Steelers +5 over EAGLES
Philadelphia is in complete disarray behind the scenes despite the on-field product being good on the field.
The in-state rivalry game will be hotly contested and hard-hitting, which plays well into the Steelers’ formula.
They don’t need to get into a spread offense matchup that the Eagles thrive in (the league’s best-passing defense per PFF).
They should be content getting into a slugfest and making no mistakes to get a victory.
Patriots +6 over CARDINALS
Jerod Mayo is probably coaching for his job in this one, especially looking at a tough end-of-season schedule.
New England has been improving defensively — they have the seventh-best YPC allowed figure in the NFL (3.9).
Their offense, which has struggled this year (second-worst yards per play in the NFL, 4.7) is improving with 5.4 YPP in their past three.
The Patriots are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing QBs as well, so don’t expect Kyler Murray to run wild this weekend either.
CHARGERS -3 over Buccaneers
Both teams are badly injured, but this is where coaches earn their keep. Jim Harbaugh should’ve and nearly did beat the Chiefs last week without playmakers J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey.
Neither appear to be trending in a good direction this week, but don’t fret.
The Buccaneers are likely without RB Bucky Irving this week as well. Back the better defense, as the Chargers have the seventh-best defense in yards per play allowed and DVOA.
Packers -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has had a tough time running the ball this season, but their passing offense has become among the league’s best thanks to the Jaxon Smith-Njigba emergence.
The Packers’ injuries are becoming worrisome, and the matchup isn’t ideal here, either.
Their 7 yards per pass attempt allowed is in the bottom half of the league and worsening by the week, and Seattle’s defense is actually graded better in terms of DVOA for the season.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
BEARS +7 over Vikings
It never is easy to back a team that was embarrassed in their interim coach’s debut game.
But rookie QB Caleb Williams should be up to the task as they face a tough Minnesota defense on the road.
In the first matchup, a game the Bears should’ve won, Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Seven points is too many here.
Falcons -4 over RAIDERS
Another time to draw the line in the sand.
It’s all about perceived regression from Kirk Cousins — and it might be real regression at this point.
Regardless, there isn’t a single position where the Raiders are better than the Falcons, who have third-best offense per PFF.
That matches up with Desmond Ridder, who was the worst quarterback in the NFL last season, according to PFF. Sell the revenge game factor and bet the Falcons, who still have plenty to play for.
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 92-97-2
