The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 6 of the NFL season.
Sunday
PACKERS (-5) vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals have the third-worst passing defense, according to Pro Football Focus, and they are allowed 4.6 yards per carry.
I think Green Bay is a Super Bowl contending team this year, and it all starts here.
Back the Packers -5 with Josh Jacobs running wild and Romeo Doubs getting right in Week 6.
Bengals (-3.5) vs. GIANTS
The Bengals defense is not anywhere near good enough to compete for the AFC South title as previously hoped, but that doesn’t mean they’re bad enough to play a close game against the Giants.
Daniel Jones vs. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase vs. a bad Giants secondary.
Sure, the Giants pass rush is among the best in football, but Big Blue can’t run with these cats.
The Bengals win by a touchdown.
Jaguars (+1.5) vs. BEARS
According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Bears defense is seventh-best in the league, and Jacksonville’s is a disaster, ranked 32nd.
Nevertheless, the Bears have really only been able to win games with their defense, and I don’t expect Trevor Lawrence to fold that easily.
Lawrence is clearly the “A Side” of this quarterback matchup, and I’m intrigued by their run game.
RAVENS (-6.5) vs. Commanders
The Commanders have scored on an insane 63 percent of their drives — the only team that has ever done that before is the 2000 Rams.
This is the same Commanders team that should have lost to the Giants earlier this season.
Is Washington all of a sudden the new Greatest Show on Turf? Bet no.
Texans (-7) vs. PATRIOTS
Drake Maye gets his first start against one of the best defenses.
Danelle Hunter (10) and Will Anderson Jr. (13) are the only pass-rushing duo in the NFL with a win rate in the top 15.
This spells disaster for one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Don’t be surprised to see Jacoby Brissett in here again.
Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. SAINTS
The Saints are on a short week, just got their rear ends kicked by Kansas City, and face a Buccaneers team that has 10 days to prepare.
The Buccaneers are rightfully favored here, as New Orleans starts Spencer Rattler. Back Baker Mayfield and maybe a sprinkle of Bucky Irvin to carry the team to victory.
Browns (+9.5) vs. EAGLES
With any luck, the Browns will bench Deshaun Watson during the game.
Frankly, he’s the only reason they are losing games right now.
The Browns still have the sixth-best defense, according to PFF.
As we talked about last week, big underdogs after a blowout are now 334-248-13 since 2003.
The data suggests the Browns are the bet, and the Eagles aren’t to be trusted to cover big numbers right now.
Colts (+2.5) vs. TITANS
Anthony Richardson is not a professional starting quarterback, but neither is Will Levis.
With those two making bonehead decisions on each side, we look toward the rest of the roster, where the Colts have the highest-rated offensive line and also has a higher-ranked defense, according to PFF, and FTN (For The Numbers) gives the Colts the 19th-best DVOA grade, ahead of the Titans’ 26th rank.
Chargers (-3) vs. BRONCOS
Jim Harbaugh versus a rookie quarterback could be a disaster for Bo Nix even while playing at Mile High.
The Chargers get a week to prepare for a bad quarterback who has been getting by on smoke and mirrors and short passing.
That will end at some point, Nix is the third-worst starting quarterback according to PFF, behind only Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
Steelers (-3) vs. RAIDERS
Things are going terribly for Antonio Pierce and the Raiders, and I don’t see them getting much better this weekend.
Aidan O’Connell starts for Las Vegas, the 30th-ranked team according to PFF, and the Steelers are coming off a brutal loss to the Cowboys and is the leagues third ranked team.
Pittsburgh’s defense was not good last week, but they should be able to run on Las Vegas, which has allowed the seventh-most yards per carry in the NFL (4.9).
Falcons (-6) vs. PANTHERS
The Falcons are one of the best teams in football, we just haven’t been privy to their talent yet because their defense has struggled.
The offense has looked phenomenal, especially last week when Kirk Cousins went scorched earth on the Buccaneers.
My model has this line at 7.4 points, so we’re getting a strong value here.
COWBOYS (+3) vs. Lions
It doesn’t sound overly likely that Micah Parsons will play, but Daron Bland is practicing in full as this once great defensive unit looks to run into form after being blasted by injuries.
We saw their run defense look excellent against the Steelers, and perhaps that’s a sign of things to come after really struggling to begin the year.
Cowboys win outright in a pass-heavy game from both teams.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
JETS (+2.5) vs. Bills
Must-win with a new coach for Gang Green.
Will Nathanial Hackett’s dismissal from play-calling do any good for the Jets?
Perhaps Rodgers could take some magic mushrooms and be more nimble.
Either way, you shake it.
The Bills have not been good, averaging the 10th-fewest yards per play in the NFL the past three weeks.
They’ve also allowed the ninth-most in that span, so though the Jets are worst in the league in yards per play, they’re equally allowing the least.
The Jets win outright at home and shouldn’t be underdogs
Last week: 7-6.
