The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 7 of the NFL season.
SUNDAY
Patriots (+6) over Jaguars (in London)
The Jaguars are a disaster, we know that. But did anyone watch Drake Maye last week? I did.
He looked excellent in his NFL debut.
The Texans defense is among the best in the NFL, while the Jaguars are ranked 32nd in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
The Patriots roll to victory here.
Eagles (-3) over GIANTS
You don’t want to back road favorites too often, but the Eagles have had the Giants’ number for years, and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.
Malik Nabers’ return is a definite boost, but losing Andrew Thomas is a concern because of what will now turn into a bad offensive line.
Big Blue’s offense isn’t good as it is.
Jets (-2) over STEELERS
The Jets are riding high after a loss — go figure. Davante Adams is in and still a very good player, so the offense should be strong.
Greg Zeurlein is a big problem, especially in Pittsburgh, which is a tough place to kick.
It would be nice if we could trust the Jets kicker, but fading Russell Wilson is good enough.
FALCONS (-3) over Seahawks
Call it bias, but I think the Falcons are one of the best teams in football.
Atlanta is the seventh-best in yards per play, and it is the fifth-best team, according to Pro Football Focus, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism.
Seattle is allowing 7.1 yards per play in their past three games; I’m expecting the Falcons to roll.
Titans (+9.5) over BILLS
The Tennessee defense is not getting nearly enough respect here.
The Titans are allowing 4.3 yards per play, the lowest in the NFL.
Buffalo is coming into this game on a short week after an emotional and — let’s be honest — lucky victory at MetLife.
You would be foolish to lay the points on Buffalo.
The Titans are live to win this one outright, especially because we have seen many Josh Allen-led teams lay an egg as big favorites.
BROWNS (+5.5) over Bengals
Both of these teams stink, to be clear, but the Browns pass defense is solid enough to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
They’re a top-10 pass defense in passing yards allowed to opposing teams.
Cincinnati can’t really run the ball to victory, and their defense (22nd in DVOA) is so bad it could make Deshaun Watson and fresh-off-injury Nick Chubb look semi-competent.
Texans (+3) over PACKERS
I’ll take the better defense in a coin-flip game.
Houston is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play in the NFL, while Green Bay is 16th.
The Packers definitely have a better offense, putting up 6.2 yards per play (fourth best), but the Texans aren’t bad in their own right at 5.7 (11th).
All things considered, the Texans should be the play here, considering they have the better quarterback to boot.
Dolphins (+3.5) over COLTS
No, Jonathan Taylor for the Colts, and De’Von Achane is expected to be back in the fold for Miami.
All good news for the Dolphins, who had a bye week to prepare for this game.
Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson expects to return to starting for reasons that are unclear.
He is the second-worst quarterback among all starters, according to PFF.
Lions (+1.5) over VIKINGS
Think about what this line would’ve been preseason. Now look at it.
The Vikings were one-point favorites to the Giants in Week 1.
Now they’re 1.5-point favorites to one of the NFC’s Super Bowl favorites?
No chance I’m betting on Sam Darnold this week.
Detroit takes this one without Aidan Hutchinson.
Raiders (+7) over RAMS
With or without Cooper Kupp, the Rams shouldn’t be seven-point favorites against anyone right now.
Their defense is allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per play and their offense (5.1 yards per play, 19th-best) is not good enough to make up for that.
Nothing has changed for the Rams. Seven points is way too many.
WASHINGTON (-8) over Panthers
The Panthers got an initial boost from adding Andy Dalton to the lineup to replace Bryce Young, but there’s only so long that a jolt of energy can hide lousy personnel decisions.
The Commanders have, apparently, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Jayden Daniels.
He should be able to help Washington dominate this one and cover a big number.
Chiefs (+1.5) over 49ERS
Unless you have a really good defense, the Chiefs can’t be underdogs against any team in the NFL.
Eventually, Patrick Mahomes will come for you.
The 49ers defense is a shell of its former dominant self — allowing 5.4 yards per play, the 17th worst in the NFL.
These are two excellent teams to be fair, but Mahomes has lost just three times in his NFL career as an underdog, and this doesn’t seem like it will be the fourth.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Ravens
Tampa Bay is a respectable team.
This line implies that the Buccaneers would be 6.5-point underdogs on the road.
That doesn’t seem accurate.
Baltimore’s defense is actually not good either — allowing 5.6 yards per play, which is a bottom-10 number.
Why can’t Baker Mayfield tear this defense up? They can and should win this game.
Chargers (-2.5) over CARDINALS
Arizona looks to be without Marvin Harrison Jr., so the league’s 23rd-ranked team in terms of DVOA will get worse.
Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh’s crew is the No. 3 DVOA team, so based on that metric alone, this line is way off.
Chargers are better everywhere and should win easy.
Last week: 10-3
Season: 40-45-1.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
