The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 8 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Cardinals (+4.5) over DOLPHINS
Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back, but that’s not enough for me.
Arizona has the better quarterback in Kyler Murray, and their defenses are about even, according to PFF and DVOA.
Arizona wins this one outright.
Ravens (-8.5) over BROWNS
Is Jameis Winston that big of an upgrade over Deshaun Watson? It’s possible.
As a guy who has been betting the Browns against the spread nearly every week besides when they played the Giants in Week 2, trust me when I say the Ravens are too much.
They are averaging 7.2 yards per play, light years ahead of the next highest Lions (6.4).
TEXANS (-5.5) over Colts
Jonathan Taylor being back should do nothing to the spread here.
Houston is among the best pass rushes in the NFL, which could be bad news for Anthony Richardson — who we all know can’t throw and gets hit far too much.
It’s not like the Colts defense is any good either — allowing 5.6 yards per play, a bottom-10 unit.
Packers (-4) over JAGUARS
Jacksonville ran the ball down the throats of the Patriots in London.
Don’t expect to do that against a top-10 Packers run defense.
Green Bay allows just 4.3 yards per carry, and its pass coverage grade is the seventh-best in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
Titans (+11.5) over LIONS
Tennessee’s defense is solid, allowing the second-fewest yards per play.
Things were going fine for the Titans last week before they went for it on fourth down at their own 44 and didn’t get it.
The Titans can’t fall behind big, as Mason Rudolph won’t be able to bring them back, but their defense should keep most games close.
Falcons (-2) over BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay’s entire offense was its wide receivers.
With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans not playing, it is down to Bucky Irving and a whole lot of nothing for the Falcons to deal with this weekend.
After Evans went down against the Ravens, the Buccaneers’ drives went interception, interception, missed field goal, punt, and punt before garbage time.
Falcons roll here against a bad defense.
Jets (-7) over PATRIOTS
Analytically, there’s not a whole lot tying the Jets to a cover here other than they easily mashed New England in Week 3, and they’ve acquired Davante Adams and Hasson Reddick since then.
The Patriots have had the seventh-worst run defense in the past three weeks, so expect a Breece Hall showcase this weekend.
Bears (-3) over COMMANDERS
Jayden Daniels takes insane hits if you watch his tape from college.
If he doesn’t learn to slide, he will have a short career.
Whether he plays this weekend is relevant only to the line.
If he does, buy the Bears at a reduced price, perhaps even +1.
Chicago has the fourth-best defense, according to PFF.
CHARGERS (-7) over Saints
New Orleans doesn’t bother playing run defense — it is second-worst against the run, only ahead of the Panthers.
I’m not the biggest J.K. Dobbins fan, but the Saints are not worth betting on as this season wears on.
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Bills
Seattle is 4-3 straight up as a home underdog since 2022, the third-most profitable team in the NFL.
The Bills have serious questions surrounding them, including allowing 5.1 yards per carry, the fourth-worst mark.
Kenneth Walker runs to a big win over the Bills.
Eagles (+2.5) over BENGALS
Careful betting on a defense this bad.
Cincinnati has the fifth-worst pass rush and allows the ninth-most rushing yards.
The defensive line over offensive line battle is a mismatch here, and it’s hard to see where the Bengals beat the Eagles at all.
Philadelphia leaves Ohio with an easy win.
RAIDERS (+9) over Chiefs
Kansas City does just enough to win but doesn’t really blow anyone out these days.
The Chiefs have the opportunity to introduce DeAndre Hopkins into the team, since Rashee Rice and Juju Smith-Schuster are out with injuries.
The Chiefs win, but Raiders cover, 27-20.
Panthers (+11.5) over Broncos
Bryce Young steps in for Andy Dalton against a tough defense.
But let’s look at the quarterback matchup here.
Can Bo Nix score enough points to lead the team to victory?
The sportsbooks were roasted by favorites the past two weeks, going 10-3 in Week 6 before a 7-7 showing in Week 7, but don’t buy into their over-correction trap.
Underdogs will cover in Week 8.
49ERS (-4.5) over Cowboys
Cowboys can’t stop the run, and San Francisco is still one of the best running offenses.
The 49ers are second in yards per play (6.4) while the Cowboys are stuck at 19th (5.2).
If Micah Parsons or Demarcus Lawrence were playing, I would be a bit more inclined to bet Dallas.
As it sits, Kyle Shanahan should win this one easy going into a bye week.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
Giants (+6) over STEELERS
A vote of confidence for coach Brian Daboll should help the Giants, who are actually at full health going into “Monday Night Football.”
For all the love the Steelers are getting with this line, they are just the 19th-best offense — slightly ahead of the Giants, who are 23rd and at full health.
Are we positive that Russell Wilson is good? I’m not.
Daniel Jones reverses his prime-time game curse, as he’s just 1-14 under the bright lights.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 46-53-1.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
