Long Island’s East End is trending red.
Freshman Republican Rep. Nick LaLota leads Democratic challenger John Avlon by eight percentage points (50%-42%) among likely voters in the race for New York’s 1st Congressional District, according to an internal poll released by the GOP campaign.
Boosting LaLota in the competitive race is the presence of former President Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
Trump, 78, leads vice president and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, 59, by six (50%-44%) in the district that stretches from Huntington to the Hamptons.
Democrats are hoping for an upset by Avlon, 51, a former CNN commentator, founder of the centrist group No Labels, and onetime speechwriter for former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
But LaLota, 46, a Navy veteran who succeeded longtime Rep. Lee Zeldin in Congress and reported $1.45 million remaining in his campaign treasury, appears to have the upper hand.
“The positive feedback I receive from constituents, confirmed by our latest polling, shows that Suffolk County families want a common-sense conservative and lifelong Long Islander to tackle issues at the border, strengthen the economy, and lead on world issues,” LaLota said.
“With an eight-point lead and over $1.45 million on hand heading into the final four weeks, I am confident we will win in November,” he added.
LaLota also took a shot at Avlon for keeping a $3.2 million Gramercy Park co-op in Manhattan as well as a residence in Sag Harbor.
“My fellow Long Islanders shouldn’t be surprised if, after seeing how far out of reach this race is—and experiencing his first chill of an October on Long Island—my opponent heads back to his cozy Manhattan mansion before Election Day,” needled the congressman, who lives in Amityville, a few miles outside his district boundaries.
“Despite being outraised and outspent, LaLota has the wind in his sails,” pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “These numbers clearly indicate that the Congressman has the momentum and support to continue serving the people of Suffolk County.”
Avlon’s campaign dismissed the poll and claimed the Republican would be in for a shock Nov. 5.
“Nick LaLota’s campaign is setting themselves up for heartbreak in November by rushing out a poll as it becomes clear that John Avlon has a cash and enthusiasm advantage in the last month of the race,” said the Democrat’s campaign manager, Bryan Sokolowski.
“There is a reason John’s been endorsed by Republicans and independents while Nick keeps ducking face-to-face events — he’s worried about what happens when he gets called out for breaking his promises on SALT [restoring full state and local tax deductions], reproductive freedom, and his hackish hyperpartisanship that puts right-wing special interests over Suffolk County families.”
The Avlon campaign said the candidate had raised $2.5 million between his two campaign committees, and will have a cash advantage during the final stretch of the campaign.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has added Avlon to its “Red to Blue” program, indicating the party is making flipping the Long Island seat a top priority.
The survey of 400 likely voters in NY-1 was carried out by Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates for the LaLota campaign Sept. 26-29 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.
