Former president Donald Trump will finally get his long-sought-after debate against President Biden Thursday evening — but strategists say the event’s new rules are “stacked against” him and may undermine his strengths as a debater.
Trump swiftly agreed to CNN’s potentially unfavorable terms last month, biting his tongue at concessions that might’ve been necessary to draw Biden out to the debate stage.
“Every single thing about this debate is stacked against [Trump] from both expectation setting game as well as format,” veteran Republican strategist John Thomas told The Post.
“But Trump, in a sense, boxed himself in given the fact that he had been taunting President Biden for so many months to debate.”
Trump, 78, himself, speculated to the Washington Examiner that Biden’s camp “thought they would present it, I would say no, and they would say we can’t debate because Trump said no.”
But now, he’s locked into a debate structure devoid of any live studio audience for him to riff off of — as well as microphones that cut off when it’s not his turn to speak, making interruptions exceedingly difficult.
Not to mention, Trump has a lengthy history of bitterly clashing with CNN.
“Agreeing to the rules is different than abiding by them,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden said, musing that Trump’s aggressiveness could still shine through despite the limitations placed on him.
“I’m sure his staff was not happy with the debate conditions that were promulgated by CNN,” Democrat strategist Brad Bannon mused. “I’m not sure CNN is going to get exactly what they wanted to with the limitations they imposed on the candidates.”
“Donald Trump’s going to be Donald Trump mic or not. I think Trump is aggressive by nature.”
The mic situation could also work to Trump’s advantage.
During his first-ever debate against Biden in fall of 2020, Trump frequently interrupted and ran roughshod over the moderator at times.
Some of his allies said he went in “too hot.” Under these conditions, it could curb his detrimental proclivities.
“I believe the mute button is actually to Trump’s benefit because it forces Biden to fill the space. Biden simply can’t stop talking because Trump interrupts him,” Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said.
“For Trump to win, he needs to be less Trump.”
“It gives Donald Trump an opportunity to appear more sensible and rational,” Republican strategist Terry Holt said.
By being stymied from interrupting, Trump will have to cede time to Biden.
Some Republican strategists are skeptical that Biden will be entirely coherent during his allotted time, which could bode well for Trump.
“I think their concern is can we get our guy through an hour without him collapsing on stage,” Republican strategist Liz Mair said bluntly, referring to Biden. “You could have a debate hosted by the Young Turks, and you’d have the same fundamental problem.”
Still, Trump will likely be stripped of a key asset in his toolkit.
“I’d say the mic muting broadly is bad for Trump, and that’s in part because one of the weapons that he deploys very effectively against his opponents is to get them off guard or catch them off balance, and then hold them off balance,” Thomas said.
“I think the biggest rule that works against President Trump is … the lack of a live audience. Trump is an entertainer, and in part, he feeds on the reaction of the room and gets his cues from the room.”
In preparation for the debate, Biden has opted to hunker down in Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, where he’s huddled with an entourage of advisers and allies to get himself ready.
Incumbents are often thought to underperform in the first round of presidential debates. This time, however, both men have served as president.
Trump’s debate prep appears to be far more lowkey. Strategists had different insights about this.
“Trump is Mr. Wing-it, okay. The thing is where Trump is lucky is that he tends to have better natural soundbites — or at least more news attention-grabbing soundbites — than Biden does,” Mair said.
“Trump is also capable of being funny.”
“I don’t think Trump likes debate prep, because I don’t think he likes people telling him what talk about, or to say,” Bannon said. “Joe Biden is very disciplined.”
Bannon also predicted that Biden will be “very aggressive” on the debate stage, taking note of ads his campaign and allies have run raking Trump over the coals for his conviction in the Manhattan hush money case as well as sexual assault finding in the E. Jean Carroll case.
“I prepare a lot of candidates for debates, and I tend to be of the mindset [of] being careful not to over-prepare, because you can freeze in the moment — have too much information in your brain,” Thomas said.
Most of the strategists felt that the debate posed a greater risk overall for Biden than for Trump despite the structure due to questions about his mental acuity.
“Biden has to prove that he has the stamina and mental acuity to do the job. And voters have to really weigh whether they can take another four years of Donald Trump,” Seitchik said.
“Unless Anita Dunn is going to invent a time machine sometime between now and November, there is nothing Biden can do about that,” Mair said, noting that Biden has also alienated large swaths Independent voters with his economic performance.
“Honestly, I think this is going to be complete sh—show,” she later added. “I’m gonna have to watch this, and I’m probably going to want to move to like Borneo or whatever, after because it’s going to be that bad.”
Bannon suggested that Biden will be able to help disabuse GOP narratives about his age during the debate and stressed that Trump has been prone to mishaps as well.
“I’ve watched video of Trump’s last couple of rallies and he’s been incoherent talking about sharks and batteries and all sorts of things,” he said. “I think the real question is, can Donald Trump be as clear-headed and forceful as President Biden can.”
Days before debate night, Trump and his allies have begun grumbling more loudly over the debate dynamic, particularly taking aim at CNN.
“I think they could have negotiated more on the terms of the exact debate,” Thomas said. “I still think there’s ways for President Trump to prevail here. It’s just he’s having to do it with his hands tied behind his back.”
Trump has also sought to raise expectations for Biden, publicly peddling unsubstantiated speculation that “before debate time, he gets a shot in the a—” and will be “all jacked up.”
During a press call before the debate, top advisers predicted Biden could be on Adderall to boost his concentration. This came after months of amplifying Biden’s verbal gaffes and flagrant mishaps.
“We know the when it comes to the big events, when it comes to debates when it comes to the State of the Union, things of that nature — they’re going to have Joe Biden completely super-soldiered up,” adviser Jason Miller said.
“He is going to be ready to go. He has a certain muscle memory that kicks in for having done this for 50 years.”
Nonetheless, many of the strategists felt that the debate presents a rare opportunity this cycle to shift the outlook of a somewhat static presidential contest.
“We’ve barely seen a real campaign yet,” Madden quipped, arguing that the 2024 cycle has mostly been a dud compared to past presidential contests.
“Biden has to prove that he has the stamina and mental acuity to do the job. And voters have to really weigh whether they can take another four years of Donald Trump,” Seitchik said.
