These two Big Ten squads know each other well and face off for the third time this season in the Sweet 16 when No. 9 Iowa faces No. 4 Nebraska in the South Region on Thursday.
Iowa won the first matchup in a low-scoring rock fight on Feb. 17, while the Cornhuskers got one back at them with an overtime win to close the regular season on March 8.
The Hawkeyes are always looking to muck up the waters when they step onto the floor, as Ben McCollum’s group is rated No. 361 in the country in adjusted tempo (62.7 possessions per 40 minutes), by far the lowest of any team left in the tournament.
Nebraska isn’t exactly fast-paced in its own right, ranking 231st in adjusted tempo (66.6 possessions per 40 minutes).
Two strong defenses will match up Thursday night beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET, and, as always, it will come down to who can knock down shots to take them into the Elite Eight.
Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction
The total for this game is almost impossibly low, coming in at 132.5, by far the lowest of any Sweet 16 game.
The only 2026 March Madness contest with a projected lower pregame was Iowa vs. Clemson in the Round of 64.
That game went Under the total, as the Hawkeyes won, 67-61, in a slow-moving game.
Iowa defeated Nebraska, 57-52, on Feb. 17, but the Cornhuskers got them back a few weeks later with an 84-75 overtime win in the regular season finale.
These two teams know each other extremely well, and while this game profiles as a mismatch based on seeding, it’s much closer in reality.
My model has this spread dead-on, with a projected score of 67.34-66.32 in favor of the Cornhuskers.
That gives a very slight lean toward Iowa, considering the +1.5 is -108 odds.
Betting on College Basketball?
The projected score also gives a lean to the Over, which is what I will target here.
Bet on Over 132.5 points, as these two very familiar teams fight in the rubber match on Thursday.
PREDICTION: Over 132.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
