Lamar Jackson has entered the chat.
After the star quarterback delivered another memorable and eye-opening performance on national television, the NFL MVP race is now considered to be much tighter than previously thought — and that provides betting value in Week 17.
Josh Allen remains the MVP betting favorite but his odds have lowered to -200 at DraftKings. The Bills quarterback was about -900 just two weeks ago.
Jackson’s three touchdowns each on Christmas and the previous week have catapulted him back into serious consideration, lowering his odds to +145. The reigning MVP leads the league in QBR and has 39 touchdown passes with just four interceptions, along with 852 rushing yards and four TD.
Voter fatigue usually prevents a back-to-back award winner, but if the season is that incredible, then he can overcome that resistance. After all, Aaron Rodgers just pulled it off in 2020 and 2021.
That is why I believe Buffalo’s matchup with the Jets provides a favorable opportunity. Allen has +105 odds to throw at least two touchdown passes against a defense that was recently torched by Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.
Allen should thrive, especially since he tends to excel in adverse conditions. Weather forecasts call for steady rain but fairly warm temperatures.
The MVP storyline is what makes the prop bet a solid play. I believe Allen’s chances hinge on this performance, especially because Allen likely will skip next week’s regular season finale. If he underdelivers against the Jets, that likely sways the award to Jackson.
Betting on the NFL?
I do believe that underlying narrative will influence play-calling in the red zone, especially if the Bills have a comfortable lead. He can always run for a score, and those odds are -115 and separate from the passing touchdowns. However, I think it is more likely that he is given the green light to find the end zone through the air.
The Bills want to win the game and secure the AFC’s second seed. That is undeniably the top priority. But they also want their franchise cornerstone to win the MVP and will make certain decisions to accomplish both. That’s why I view the +105 odds as value and a far better wager than -200 on an MVP ticket.
