Each week, The California Post will power rank MLB’s 30 teams. This week, we are doing something a little different coming out of the All-Star break and breaking down which clubs are playoff locks, contenders, pretenders and potentially feisty as the stretch run of the season begins:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Locks: Dodgers, Brewers
With the Dodgers, “lock” might be a literal term. They entered the second half 10 games clear of the playoff cut line (and with an even bigger lead in their division). FanGraphs’ computer models give them a literal 100% chance of making the postseason (and a 99.8% chance of winning the NL West). They are already gearing up for their pursuit of a third straight World Series title.
The Brewers, meanwhile, are enjoying almost the same level of security. They are just 1 ½ games back of the Dodgers for best record in the majors and had the second-largest division lead at the All-Star break. There are concerns with their pitching staff (Jacob Misiorowski has arm fatigue, and Brandon Woodruff’s outlook “isn’t good,” per manager Pat Murphy). But they should have enough cushion for a fourth straight playoff appearance.
Contenders: Phillies, Braves, Cubs
The Phillies have overcome a disastrous start to the season. The Braves are still leading the NL East despite a disastrous end to the first half. And the Cubs have bounced back from several disastrous spells of their own already. It’s a reminder that while these are flawed teams, their elevated ceilings still make them a threat.
The Phillies have been buoyed by their star-studded rotation, which will make them a threat come October. The Braves have benefited from Matt Olson’s, Michael Harris II’s and Drake Baldwin’s big seasons, giving them a legitimate contending core. And if not for Shohei Ohtani, the Cubs would likely have the MVP front-runner in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Whichever of them can find more consistency in the second half should be a real threat in the playoffs.
Potentially feisty: Pirates, Cardinals, Marlins
Three relatively young teams, all of whom could be trouble if you play them at the wrong time.
The Pirates are headlined by Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft and their rotation but were quietly tied for the MLB lead in runs at the All-Star break, too.
The Cardinals have flourished behind potential budding stars Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt and Michael McGreevy.
The Marlins have more wins than anyone since the start of June, cobbling together a top-six lineup (when measured by FanGraphs’ cumulative wins above replacement metric) to pair with their Sandy Alcantara/Max Meyer-led rotation.
None of these teams will win the World Series. They could end someone else’s dream of doing so.
Pretenders: Dbacks, Padres, Nationals
To be sure, any of these teams could still sneak into the playoffs, with each of them sitting within four games of a wild-card spot. However, it’s also difficult to take any of them too seriously, after they each had crippling flaws emerge in the first half.
The Dbacks’ lineup will always be dangerous, but their injury-ravaged rotation has been nothing short of a mess (thanks to the continued absence of Corbin Burnes and failed reunions with Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen).
The Padres continue to have the majors’ worst offense, even after recent improvements from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., and are holding their rotation together with journeyman Band-Aids.
The Nationals’ bullpen appears beyond fixing, wasting a breakthrough season from their young offense.
Already surrendered: Mets, Reds, Giants, Rockies
The Rockies were supposed to be here. The other three? Each in the running for most disappointing season.
The Mets have failed to fix their trainwreck campaign and seem set to sell off whatever they can at the trade deadline.
The Giants are in the same boat but stuck with even worse contracts that will be borderline impossible to move.
The Reds, meanwhile, have taken a massive step back after last year’s surprise playoff berth.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Locks: Rays, Yankees
We’re not sure either of these teams are exactly juggernauts, especially not until the Yankees get Aaron Judge back.
But in an exceedingly weak American League, they’ve pulled far enough away that they should safely be playing in October. FanGraphs gives each of them a 97% chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Rays have had a very Rays season, succeeding with uncovered gems in their pitching staff and an offense that is doing just enough –– thanks largely to Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda. They could be positioned for a big deadline splash.
The Yankees, on the other hand, just need to get healthy, as they continue to tread water while missing not only Judge but also Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Giancarlo Stanton.
Contenders: Mariners, Guardians
It’s hard to find many true “contenders” in a league with only five winning teams.
The Mariners, at least now, aren’t even among that group.
However, these two teams have experienced recent October success, have rosters that are largely unchanged from those recent postseason runs and should possess the highest ceilings of all the teams currently stuck in the AL’s mediocre pack.
The Mariners’ rotation can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the playoffs. The Guardians will also look like a different team once José Ramírez returns to action. For now, we’ll keep betting on the upside with both clubs.
Potentially feisty: White Sox, Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers
In an AL race this wide open, this category was not short on options.
Outside of the upstart White Sox (who remain one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year), all of these teams have struggled for at least some portion of the season. Yet, each remains in the thick of the playoff race — with reasons to believe they can still salvage something from their seasons this year.
The Rangers are in first place in the AL West, despite their negative run differential and bottom-half team ERA and OPS. The Red Sox have finally turned things around by winning 11 straight games to climb back to .500. The Astros have an MVP candidate in Yordan Alvarez leading their championship-winning core. The Blue Jays are floundering but are less than a year removed from their World Series run. Even the Orioles have finally strung together five wins in a row to climb back into the playoff picture.
The most interesting team in this group is the Tigers, who have gotten back within 3 ½ games of a wild-card spot, surprisingly have the fourth-best run differential in the league and might do just enough to keep their front office from trading Tarik Skubal.
Pretenders: Twins
Apologies to the Twins, who are in a wild-card spot and continue to surpass expectations, but this still doesn’t feel sustainable — especially as long as Byron Buxton remains injured. Maybe if they add at the deadline, we’ll reconsider. But now, selling still seems like a distinct possibility.
Already surrendered: Athletics, Royals, Angels
It’s not easy to already be effectively eliminated from playoff contention in the AL. But these three teams have done it. The Athletics are a young team that has dealt with injuries and should have brighter days ahead. The Royals, however, are threatening to waste Bobby Witt Jr.’s prime. And the Angels are, well, the Angels, on pace for what would be their first 100-loss season.
