Crude jumped to its highest level in six weeks Monday as fresh fighting between the US and Iran stoked supply fears — even as an oil industry expert predicted American motorists could soon get a break at the pump.
Brent gained 1.5% to $97.73 a barrel after touching $97.93, a level last seen July 23. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $93.10, marking the highest price since late July.
Crude climbed after another weekend of fighting between the US and Iran, while reported attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities Monday added to uncertainty over Middle East energy supplies.
Despite the turmoil, Andrew Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates, told The Post he expects US gasoline prices to decline as refiners switch from costly summer-grade fuel to cheaper winter blends.
“There actually is a little bit of good news on the horizon for most of the country,” he said.
“The majority of the country will be transitioning to winter-grade gasoline, and that’s a good 20 cents a gallon cheaper than the prices we see in the wholesale market today,” he added.
Barring a significant increase in crude prices or a widening of Middle East hostilities, Lipow expects gasoline prices to begin declining in October.
Diesel users, however, could face a much tougher autumn.
Demand is poised to increase during the agricultural harvest and as the Northeast heads into the home-heating season, according to Lipow.
Diesel inventories in New England and the Southeast are at their lowest levels since the Department of Energy began reporting the data in November 1990, the expert said.
The squeeze has been exacerbated by damage to refineries in the Middle East, which Lipow said will take months to repair, as well as Ukrainian drone strikes that he said have knocked out 40% to 60% of Russian refining capacity.
“These events between the Middle East and Russia have impacted about eight percent of the world’s diesel supplies,” Lipow said.
For consumers, Lipow said the price of crude alone fails to capture the severity of the crunch in refined fuels.
While US crude was trading around $93 a barrel, Lipow calculated wholesale gasoline at roughly $135 a barrel and wholesale diesel at $196 a barrel.
“The consumer is going to experience sticker shock when they get that first home heating oil bill,” Lipow said, noting that retail diesel prices in Maine and Massachusetts are more than $2 a gallon above year-ago levels.
The strain comes even after strategic petroleum reserve releases, commercial inventory drawdowns and demand destruction in Asia helped cushion the market, Lipow said.
“You can’t rely on inventories forever, and that’s really the concern,” he said.
With East Coast diesel supplies already depleted, Lipow warned that another shock could make matters worse.
“We’re one hurricane away from a significant supply disruption,” he said.
The US military struck three Iranian oil tankers Saturday after Iran fired ballistic missiles at two Navy warships, according to US Central Command.
CENTCOM said the Iranian vessels were part of a “multibillion-dollar shadow network” that funds Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and regional proxies.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks on commercial vessels as a “war crime” and an act of “economic warfare.”
The escalation continued Monday as Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on X, “Strike our assets and you get struck.”
His post came in response to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said the US “will destroy (and sink)” Iranian oil tankers if Tehran fires on American vessels.
Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco facilities were hit in fresh attacks Monday, according to a Financial Times report. Damage was being assessed at a facility in Jizan, home to a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery, and responsibility for the attack was not immediately clear, the report said.
The Post has sought comment from the White House.
