Caleb Williams is back and the market is awfully eager to crown the Bears after topping the fickle Falcons by one possession.
In the three games the dynamic gunslinger was absent due to a hamstring injury, the Bears found themselves primarily relying on their defense. That’s not to discredit Case Keenum’s resurrection on “Monday Night Football” against the Eagles in Week 3, but red-zone struggles were a theme across that span: Chicago scored just four times across 15 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Mind you, this is a defense that allows an NFL-worst 6 yards per play.
Williams certainly gave the market good reason to trust him in his rust-free return against Atlanta. He orchestrated touchdown drives in the Bears’ first two drives and finished the day with 305 yards, an 83 percent completion rate, and zero turnovers.
Patriots vs. Bears prediction, best bet
A fellow 4-2 Patriots team that is really in its stride right now represents a different challenge for Williams and the Bears on Thursday.
I’ll be the first to admit I hit the eject button on New England after the Jaguars decimated them by 29 points. Their cakewalk of a schedule that mapped them to the Super Bowl last year felt like it was beginning to get exposed.
But since then, Drake Maye’s turnover issues have completely vanished. After throwing six interceptions through three weeks, the MVP runner-up has tossed an NFL-best 10 touchdowns against just one interception over his last three games. Maye is also leading the league in passer rating (119.3) and EPA per dropback (0.38) during that stretch.
These numbers aren’t inflated by one favorable matchup, either. Maye helped engineer these victories with a 47-point explosion over a respectable Raiders team and is the only challenger to best Josh Allen thus far.
It’s worth mentioning that New England’s offensive line is battered on the short week. It lost Morgan Moses and Alijah Vera-Tucker to injuries against the Jets, while Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are already on injured reserve.
The Bears pressure within the top five defenses, so Maye will need to get the football out of his hands when he can. Even so, the Patriots allowed zero sacks and just four quarterback hits against the Jets despite losing three offensive linemen in the game.
Establishing the run game will be key. New England churned out 148 rushing yards against the Jets, and it’s helpful that Chicago ranks among the bottom five in yards allowed before contact on running plays.
I also expect a bounce-back effort from A.J. Brown. The star wideout managed only three catches on 10 targets in his first full game with the Patriots. His role won’t be going anywhere.
Perhaps the biggest differentiator between these two is New England’s defense, which ranks among the league’s top 10 in both points and yards allowed.
Betting on the NFL?
The Patriots do rely heavily on man coverage — a scheme that Williams ranks within the top three in both completion percentage and passer rating against. Whether defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr mixes in more zone coverage remains to be seen, though I expect cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who ranks 11th overall in passer rating allowed per Pro Football Focus, to limit one side of the field either way.
This is one of the bigger toss-up Thursday night games of the season, so side with the more capable defense and a Patriots team that’s 5-1-1 against the spread as road underdogs under Mike Vrabel.
THE PLAY: Patriots +2.5 (+125, 45 percent, Polymarket)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
