Florida State got the win against New Mexico State in Week 0, but it wasn’t pretty.
Tagged as 31.5-point favorites against the Aggies, the Seminoles never threatened to cover. They were up by just one score late into the third quarter and struggled to stop New Mexico State from moving the ball through the air.
It’s one thing to be rusty in a Week 0 contest against cannon fodder, but the Seminoles were undisciplined and seemed unable to get out of first gear. It was a bad look, especially given the circumstances surrounding the program going into 2026.
With head coach Mike Norvell under immense pressure after back-to-back disappointing seasons, a statement was expected from the Seminoles at home against one of the worst teams in the country.
Instead, it was more of the same, and Norvell could be on the chopping block if things go awry in Florida State’s next two games against SMU and Alabama.
The betting odds are ominous. The Mustangs are 3-point favorites in Tallahassee.
Florida State wound up winning by 17 points against New Mexico State, but nothing in the box score looks pretty.
The Seminoles gave up 4.8 yards per play, the Aggies were 10-for-17 on third down, and the time of possession was close to even.
If the Aggies had even the slightest answer for Ousmane Kromah and the Florida State ground game, they could have pulled off the upset.
None of this bodes well for the Seminoles for Monday’s visit from SMU.
If Trey Hedden, who was starting at Furman last season, was able to shred the Florida State secondary, imagine what Kevin Jennings will be able to do on Monday night.
Jennings may get himself into trouble with picks from time to time, but the FSU secondary gave us no indication against New Mexico State last weekend. If Jennings has time, he should be able to pick apart this defense all night. And it’s a good bet that he will have that time, as SMU boasts one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country.
SMU’s offense should score plenty of points, but it’s fair to be concerned about SMU’s defense after the departure of defensive coordinator Scott Symons and several standouts from 2025. That said, this unit likely won’t have to be firing on all cylinders to get the job done on Monday night.
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Florida State’s offense looks one-note, as Ashton Jennings continues to struggle with turnovers and didn’t move the ball effectively against a defense that could wind up as one of the worst units in FBS in 2026.
If SMU can stop Kromah and force Jennings to beat them, it could turn ugly at Doak Campbell Stadium on Monday night.
Picking the right time to buy low is a crucial skill when it comes to handicapping college football, but it doesn’t seem like the market has really hit rock bottom on Florida State just yet.
Lay the points with the Mustangs and don’t be afraid to hunt some big prices on alternate spreads like -9.5 and -13.5, as this has the potential to go south really quickly for the Seminoles.
The Play: SMU -3 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
