SAN ANTONIO – Here is a question to ask as the clock ticks toward the 5 p.m. Eastern deadline on whether the Yankees will add a fifth year at $36 million to the four years at $144 million already due Gerrit Cole or allow him to head to free agency:
Which side has the leverage?
If the answer is Cole, the reason is rather simple – because he is Gerrit Cole. Because the moment you let someone like that leave your world, you instantly need someone just like him. And there is no Ace Depot to replace him.
He is the rare pitcher who can go around a lineup more than twice and hold his stuff and do it over and over again and be handed the ball in the biggest games with great comfort. And you are the Yankees and with any worries you have about his age or his first serious arm injury while under your roof, you are not going to feel more comfortable without him. Or believe more strongly in – pick a free agent – Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Blake Snell.
You are the Yankees and Aaron Judge turns 33 in April and you were just in the World Series for the first time in 15 years, so everything about you screams “Go for it now” and Cole is a go-for-it-now player, having proven himself within the sport, within New York and within October. If you keep Cole and he retains his form from his first five years with the Yankees for his next five years with the Yankees, you have one of the best pitchers in the world and potentially a retired No. 45 for Monument Park at the end of it.
You retain him when you have exclusive rights to retain him because life without him becomes more uncertain. Is Roki Sasaki actually going to be posted and can you win for him? Is Snell capable of handling New York? Can you really just zig away from your current structure and win at the levels you want to win at without a no-doubt ace?
Conversely, if the answer to who has the leverage is the Yankees, the reason is rather simple as well: Are we positive that 1) Cole can get at least the $144 million that he could have had without opting out or the $180 million that the Yankees were unwilling to give him for five years? 2) Even if he can, will it be in a place he actually wants to be?
Cole turned 34 in September, so a five-year pact covers ages 34-38. He just came off an elbow injury that limited him to 19 starts. His 3.41 ERA was his worst since he left the Dark Ages of the Pirates for the new arts of the Astros. His strikeout rate has fallen from 32.0 to 27.0 to 25.4 in the past three years, and if you would like to note the coincidence that is concurrent to a greater crackdown on illegal sticky stuff, go for it.
If the Yankees walk away from an ace who has thrived for them, would they be throwing a red caution light up to the rest of the industry? Even if not, is there just a natural caution light at 34 years old and over 2,000 innings between the regular and postseason?
Here is a question: Do you think Cole will be as healthy and successful over the next five years as he was from ages 29-to-33? If the over/under on starts for the five seasons were 130, which way would you go? If there were nice odds that he would need arm surgery sometime in the five years, which way would you go? Basically, are you paying for the health and success Cole has had or the health and success still in front of him?
Cole’s No. 1 similarity score through age 33 on Baseball Reference is Max Scherzer. Through age 33, Scherzer had 10 straight 30-start seasons. He has had one after that, not including one season where that was impossible (the pandemic 2020 campaign). Nevertheless, Scherzer was still mostly very good when he pitched – he just pitched less frequently and with declining sturdiness and impact.
The Yankees can believe that the opt-out is not a blessing for Cole. but for them. To either just stay where they were at four years or to lower the overall value by adding years, but at lower dollars or by just taking the escape hatch before Cole physically deteriorates.
And they can look around the landscape and ask, “If not us, who?” Assuming the medicals are clean, there is probably a team willing to do at least five years at $180 million or more – Cole threw the ball very well in World Series Game 5 when last seen. But I can’t imagine it is the Dodgers. Even if it was back home with the Angels, does Cole want to play for that perennial loser when he cares so much about his legacy and he is still championship-less?
The Padres seem more tapped out than gung-ho financially. Would the Orioles under bolder ownership step forward for this or perhaps do the kind of three-year, higher annual value deals that older aces such as Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler have done (think of setting a record for annual value at $45 million per on a three-year, $135 million pact)? Maybe. Does Cole want to play in Baltimore?
Phillies owner John Middleton has shown he will do big business with Scott Boras (who reps Cole) and is a go-for-it guy. The Cubs at some point have to throw some huge financial chips into the pot.
Again, there will probably be a market at a big price. But there will be hesitancy due to the age and the nerve injury in the elbow this year and the concern about why the Yankees just didn’t do it.
Also, remember that famously during the end of the 2007 World Series, Alex Rodriguez inelegantly announced he was opting out of the final three years of his contract after a season in which he would win a third AL MVP. The Yankees initially said they would never bring him back. They not only did but did so for more money and without the annuity from the Rangers that they were receiving as part of their trade to land A-Rod in the first place. So a decision today might not be a final decision – though if Cole gets out into free agency, it will feel that way.
The Yankees would be going into the wild with a rotation of Nestor Cortes in his walk year and his own elbow injury, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman, who was who Brian Cashman said he was a few years back – someone not good enough to start in the postseason for them. Could the Yankees see the ace-less Mets reach the NLCS in the tougher National League and feel they can have a good rotation by adding a couple of Sean Manaea/Luis Severino types to what they already have (and both are actually free agents) and save the Cole money to retain Juan Soto? Sure.
But it is a dangerous game. So is Cole heading out in the market with the belief that the dollars and team/city will both be there for him in free agency. Perhaps it leads to some compromise and the sides find themselves back together or one party or the other blinks before the 5 p.m. Eastern time deadline Monday. It is a fascinating who-has-the-leverage moment.
Tick-tock.
