This weekend is expected to be a tough one for the best golfers in the world.
Eight years ago, Brooks Koepka came out on top at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club by finishing at 1-over while only four other golfers finished better than 6-over.
Shinnecock’s wide fairways can be misleading, with missed greens leaving players in brutal fescue, deep bunkers, and uncomfortable short-game spots.
Conditions are likely to be just as difficult this time around, if not tougher.
On Thursday, forecasts are calling for sustained winds upward of 20 mph with gusts over 40 mph.
The wind outlook is so dire that the United States Golf Association decided to slow down green speeds by “syringing” the putting surfaces between the morning and afternoon waves on Thursday and Friday to ease playing conditions.
“We could brutalize this place the next few days if we wanted to,” USGA chief championships officer John Bodenhamer said during a press conference Wednesday. “That’s not what we’re about. We really want it to be fair, and we want it to be what Shinnecock Hills has always been. It will be tough enough. We have pulled every lever that we can to make it fair, and I think that’s a message we really want to get out there.”
Oddsmakers are expecting carnage — slower greens or not.
DraftKings Sportsbook has pegged the winning score over/under at 278.5, just under an even-par score of 280, with heavy juice on the Over.
That means bettors are effectively being asked whether anyone can finish in red numbers, unlike 2018, at a course where even the best shots can turn into bogeys once the wind starts whipping.
Much of the damage is expected during Round 1.
theScore Bet has every golfer in the field, even favorite Scottie Scheffler, with an opening-round over/under of 71.5 shots or higher on the par-70 course, suggesting oddsmakers expect the entire field to be fighting to stay around par from the opening tee shot.
The betting public has caught on.
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“Last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock in 2018, no one finished under par,” BetMGM Sportsbook senior trader Matt Wall said. “Customers clearly remember just how brutal this course can be.”
In other words, oddsmakers and bettors appear to be aligned on one thing: Shinnecock is expected to win plenty of battles this week.
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
