Back to the warehouse we go as UFC Fight Night recovers after a wild card last weekend at UFC 326.
This weekend’s action is headlined by Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos, but there are loads of interesting fights on this card from top to bottom.
Eight of the 14 fights are projected to end inside distance on Saturday as we look to find some betting value further down the card.
UFC Fight Night predictions
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos
Forty-one-year-old Emmett faces off against a young, up-and-coming star in the featherweight division for this main event five-rounder.
Vallejos is a phenomenal fighter with technical striking and solid wrestling chops.
The 24-year-old faces off against perhaps the most powerful featherweight we’ve ever seen, as Emmett has one-punch knockout power that can take opponents apart at the seams if he’s able to land.
I would have loved to see this fight if Emmett were five years younger, but he’s just so old now.
The only real chance that Emmett has in this fight is getting a flash knockout and “fraud checking” a budding featherweight contender.
I don’t see that happening here. Emmett is on the downside of his career and has lost four of his last five fights.
To be fair, a lot of those losses came against elite-level contenders, and Emmett is the only fighter who has survived 25 minutes with champion Ilia Topuria.
Still, that was 2.5 years ago. Emmett has lost a step even from that performance.
I’ll give him some credit and say that he will be competitive for two rounds, but eventually his cardio will fail him, just given the age disparity and damage accumulation for Emmett.
Target Vallejos here to win in over 2.5 rounds, covering a back-half finish decision win.
PREDICTION: Vallejos wins in over 2.5 rounds (-120, DraftKings)
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson
An interesting strawweight fight between two potential contenders, as Robertson faces off against Lemos this weekend.
Both fighters ranked in the top 10 in Fight Matrix and are rated No. 5 and No. 6 in The Post’s World MMA Rankings.
Robertson is one fighter that I’ve been interested in consistently seeing improve her grappling and striking.
From a betting perspective, I expect Robertson to have a serious grappling advantage. Since it’s a three round fight I like it to go the distance, coming in at -144 on FanDuel.
You could go with Robertson by decision (+180), but women’s fights are always high variance.
Sixty-seven percent of women’s strawweight fights go the distance, and neither fighter is a major finisher.
PREDICTION: Fight goes the distance (-144, FanDuel)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC Fight Night full card picks
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos: Vallejos wins in over 2.5 rounds (-120, DraftKings)
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson: Fight goes the distance (-144, FanDuel)
Andre Fili vs. Jose Delgado: Fight goes the distance (+225, bet365)
Marwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick: Pass
Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy: Oumar Sy ML for parlays
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+118, FanDuel)
Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai: Orolbai ML for parlays
Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund: Petrino over 1.5 takedowns (-115, Sleeper) | Petrino submission (+270, FanDuel)
Elijah Smith vs. SuYoung You: Smith ML for parlays (-205, BetRivers)
Bolaji Oki vs. Manoel Sousa: Pass
Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders: Fight goes the distance (-148, FanDuel)
Bia Mesquita vs. Montse Rendón: Fight goes the distance (+160, Caesars Sportsbook)
Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa: Sosa by decision (+300, bet365)
Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes: Fight goes the distance (-370, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
