US life expectancy is forecasted to only slightly increase over the next three decades despite medical advances, with researchers blaming a looming “public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”
Americans in 2050 are expected to live 80.4 years on average, up from 79.9 years in 2035 and 78.3 years in 2022, according to an analysis by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published this week in the Lancet.
New York is predicted to have the highest life expectancy in the US by 2050, ranking 41st in the world, which would be a drop from 33rd place in 2022.
IHME noted that life expectancy gains nationwide are not keeping pace with other countries. The US’ global ranking is expected to decline to 66th in 2050 from 49th in 2022 among 204 countries and territories.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” said IHME Director Christopher J.L. Murray.
“The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the US, with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale,” added Murray, co-senior author of the study.
More than 100 million American adults are obese, with over 22 million adults considered severely obese, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Obesity significantly raises the risk of Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, certain kinds of cancer and stroke, among other chronic conditions.
IHME figured out that eliminating risk factors like obesity, high blood sugar and high blood pressure by 2050 could prolong 12.4 million lives.
IHME also analyzed the US’ health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE), which is the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health.
The US’ HALE global ranking is forecasted to drop from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.
“The rapid decline of the US in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action,” said co-senior author Stein Emil Vollset, an affiliate professor from IHME. “The US must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that slow down the decline in future health outcomes.”
US women’s health, in particular, is expected to experience little to no gains over the next few decades.
IHME predicted female HALE to decline by 2050 in 20 states, including Ohio, Tennessee and Indiana.
IHME said decreases in female and male death rates tied to heart disease, strokes and diabetes have been partially offset by the rising rate of fatal drug overdoses.
“The opioid epidemic is far from over, and greater effectiveness and continued expansion of programs to prevent and treat drug use are still needed,” said lead study author Ali Mokdad from IHME.
Smoking, too, remains a problem. IHME estimated that 2.1 million lives could be prolonged by 2050 if smoking rates were drastically reduced.
This is not the first time public health experts have sounded the alarm about stalled US life expectancy gains. Recent research claimed the biggest boosts to longevity are in the rearview mirror because modern medicine is yielding only slight improvements.
University of Illinois Chicago professor S. Jay Olshansky, who authored that study, told The Post that you can try to increase your life expectancy by exercising, eating a healthy diet, getting a good education, taking medications prescribed by doctors and avoiding cigarettes and recreational drugs.
