The Vikings head west to face the Rams on Thursday night in an NFC battle that should provide plenty of intrigue.
Two key offensive players are expected to return, with the Vikings getting T.J. Hockenson (knee) back on the field for the first time this season and the Rams seeing Cooper Kupp (ankle) in the lineup for the first time since Week 2.
Let’s dive into the matchup and see where the value lies in this prime-time matchup.
Vikings vs. Rams ‘TNF’ odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -3 (-105) | -160 | o48 (-110) |
| Rams | +3 (-115) | +135 | u48 (-110) |
When the Vikings have the ball
Sam Darnold has been far better than most expected for the Vikings and he’s been a seamless fit in Kevin O’Connell’s masterful offensive system.
Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and he’s been highly accurate, ranking third in completion percentage over expectation.
Headlined by Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are loaded with receiving weapons that look poised to overwhelm the Rams secondary.
Los Angeles ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the pass this season, and while the return of cornerback Darious Williams helps, the team’s safeties haven’t held up in coverage.
The Rams rank 27th in DVOA against the deep ball this season, and Darnold has been the league’s third-most efficient deep ball passer by YPA.
Minnesota should also be able to get its run game going against a Rams defensive front that ranks 27th in adjusted line yards.
Aaron Jones’ ability to find success on early downs should help keep Darnold out of obvious passing situations against the Rams’ pressure unit, which is the best part of their defense.
When the Rams have the ball
Kupp’s expected return should provide a tremendous boost to what has been one of the league’s worst receiving corps over the last few weeks.
However, my biggest concern for this matchup is Matthew Stafford’s ability to navigate pressure against Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense. L.A. could get WR Puka Nacua (questionable) back too.
The Vikings rank second in blitz rate and first in pressure rate this season, and pass protection has been a significant problem for the Rams.
Stafford has been pressured on 26.5 percent of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Los Angeles has yet to find any continuity on the offensive line amidst injuries and subpar play from various starters.
Stafford ranks 32nd out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades under pressure, with five turnover-worthy plays and no big-time throws.
The return of Kupp helps that dynamic somewhat, but Stafford’s lack of mobility at this stage of his career presents significant issues against this swarming Minnesota pass rush.
The Rams will likely lean on Kyren Williams on early downs to keep Stafford out of obvious passing situations, but the Vikings have the second-best run defense in the NFL this season by early down EPA allowed.
They also rank first in run defense DVOA.
Final verdict
There’s little doubt that Stafford is a better pure quarterback than Darnold.
However, I’d argue the Vikings have a significant advantage in every other aspect of this game, especially in the trenches.
The Rams struggled to put away a bad Raiders team on Sunday despite a +3 turnover margin, including a defensive touchdown.
Betting on the NFL?
The Vikings won’t be as kind with giveaways in this game.
The situational aspect favors the Rams, with the Vikings traveling on a short week after a hard-fought divisional loss against the Lions.
Still, the schematic advantages are overwhelming for Minnesota.
I’m backing Kevin O’Connell to lead his team to a victory in his first game against his former boss, Sean McVay.
Recommendation: Vikings -3 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
