Post prop kingpin Dave Blezow is back with his annual NFL picks to help you cash in with big payouts on Most Valuable Player and league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards.
Most Valuable Player
Blezow’s breakdown: MVP has become exclusively a quarterback award.
Lamar Jackson scooped up all 49 first-place votes in 2023 to make it 11 years in a row and 16 of the past 17 for passers.
Christian McCaffrey finished third and Tyreek Hill fifth but they are 11th and tied for 24th, respectively, on the 2024 odds board.
Only three active players have won MVP: Aaron Rodgers (four), Jackson (two), Patrick Mahomes (two).
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are the heirs apparent and C.J. Stroud has positioned himself as the next big thing.
But the selection here is the favorite, Mahomes. All eyes will be on the Chiefs as they go for a historic threepeat.
The AFC West looks weak so another division title is likely, the Chiefs have a few marquee non-conference road games in which Mahomes can shine and the offense is loaded with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy joining Travis Kelce & Co.
Winner
Patrick Mahomes (+500)
Next man up
Joe Burrow (+900)
Mid-range threat
C.J. Stroud (10/1)
The odds:
| Patrick Mahomes +500 |
| Josh Allen +850 |
| Joe Burrow +900 |
| C.J. Stroud +1000 |
| Jalen Hurts +1000 |
| Jordan Love +1400 |
| Brock Purdy +1600 |
| Dak Prescott +1800 |
| Jared Goff +1800 |
| Lamar Jackson +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers +2000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +2500 |
| Anthony Richardson 28/1 |
| Justin Herbert 30/1 |
| Matthew Stafford 30/1 |
| Trevor Lawrence 30/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 35/1 |
| Kirk Cousins 40/1 |
| Caleb Williams 40/1 |
| Kyler Murray 50/1 |
| Baker Mayfield 66/1 |
| Deshaun Watson 66/1 |
| Justin Jefferson 100/1 |
| Tyreek Hill 100/1 |
| Geno Smith 125/1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase 150/1 |
| Daniel Jones 150/1 |
| Justin Fields 150/1 |
| Bryce Young 150/1 |
| Will Levis 150/1 |
| Russell Wilson 150/1 |
| CeeDee Lamb 200/1 |
| Puka Nacua 200/1 |
| Ryan Tannehill 200/1 |
| Micah Parsons 200/1 |
| Sam Darnold 200/1 |
| Bijan Robinson 250/1 |
| Travis Kelce 300/1 |
| Maxx Crosby 300/1 |
| Breece Hall 300/1 |
| Cooper Kupp 300/1 |
| Davante Adams 300/1 |
| Deebo Samuel 300/1 |
| Derrick Henry 300/1 |
| Saquon Barkley 300/1 |
| Raheem Mostert 300/1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs 300/1 |
| Stefon Diggs 300/1 |
Passing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Passing yards and MVP are different animals.
Consider in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa threw for the most yards and didn’t receive a single MVP vote.
Mahomes went from first in 2022 to sixth last season, but his odds have doubled to a more manageable +500.
Joe Burrow is sitting at an enticing +800 and both he and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy, but the Bengals could face some bad weather in the final three weeks and that could tamp down the numbers.
Mahomes is very much a threat in a stacked KC offense.
Houston’s Stroud adds Stefon Diggs and pass-catching RB Joe Mixon.
But the choice is a Tagovailoa repeat playing with Tyreek Hill in good weather at +850.
Winner
Tua Tagovailoa (+850)
Super soph
C.J. Stroud (+600)
Live long shot
Brock Purdy (25/1)
The odds:
| Patrick Mahomes +500 |
| C.J. Stroud +600 |
| Dak Prescott +750 |
| Jared Goff +800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +850 |
| Joe Burrow +850 |
| Kirk Cousins +1400 |
| Matthew Stafford +1500 |
| Jordan Love +1500 |
| Josh Allen +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers +2500 |
| Brock Purdy +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence +2500 |
| Caleb Williams +2500 |
| Will Levis +2500 |
| Jalen Hurts 30/1 |
| Justin Herbert 35/1 |
| Baker Mayfield 40/1 |
| Deshaun Watson 45/1 |
| Geno Smith 45/1 |
Rushing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Probably the most interesting category this season.
Legend Derrick Henry is now a Raven and is available at 10/1.
Christian McCaffrey is the heavy favorite after winning by almost 300 yards but it’s hard to pay the +300 premium with his injury history.
The 49ers offense may also evolve more in the direction of Brock Purdy and big-money WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Health is also a concern for Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and even Breece Hall, a year removed from his knee injury.
The most intriguing vehicle on the rehab lot is Kyren Williams, whose 95.3 yards per game were the highest in the NFL.
The choice is motivated ex-Raider Josh Jacobs, who seems like a good fit in Green Bay.
Winner
Josh Jacobs (15/1)
Mid-range threat
Kyren Williams (12/1)
Way under the radar
Kenneth Williams III (30/1)
The odds:
| Christian McCaffrey +300 |
| Jonathan Taylor +600 |
| Saquon Barkley +700 |
| Breece Hall +800 |
| Derrick Henry +1000 |
| Bijan Robinson +1200 |
| Kyren Williams +1200 |
| Josh Jacobs +1500 |
| De’Von Achane +2000 |
| Zamir White +2000 |
| Isiah Pacheco +2500 |
| Nick Chubb +2500 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs +2500 |
| Travis Etienne +3000 |
| Kenneth Walker III +3000 |
| Joe Mixon +3000 |
| Rachaad White 35/1 |
| Alvin Kamara 40/1 |
| David Montgomery 40/1 |
| James Cook 40/1 |
Receiving yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Another market that can go any which way because a receiver’s yardage is largely dependent on his health, that of his quarterback, the style of offense and even whether the defense is good enough to get off the field.
As an example, Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the NFL but how far will his numbers be dragged down by Sam Darnold?
Will Aaron Rodgers take Garrett Wilson to another level?
I’ve already picked Tagovailoa to lead in passing yards so that would give Hill a great shot to repeat if I’m correct.
Ja’Marr Chase at +900 is hard to pass up.
But the selection is CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, who lost out to Hill by just 50 yards in 2023.
Winner
Cee Dee Lamb (+700)
Fine favorite
Tyreek Hill (+450)
Mid-range threat
Amon-Ra St. Brown (11/1)
The odds:
| Tyreek Hill +450 |
| CeeDee Lamb +700 |
| Ja’Marr Chase +900 |
| Justin Jefferson +1000 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown +1100 |
| A.J. Brown +1200 |
| Garrett Wilson +1500 |
| Drake London +1800 |
| Puka Nacua +2000 |
| DJ Moore +2000 |
| Chris Olave +2000 |
| Nico Collins +2000 |
| Michael Pittman +2000 |
| Davante Adams +2000 |
| Devonta Smith +2200 |
| Stefon Diggs +2500 |
| Brandon Aiyuk +2500 |
| Mike Evans +2500 |
| Jaylen Waddle +2500 |
| Cooper Kupp +3000 |
Other NFL wagers worth making
In 2023, this side helping of props went 2-2. We cashed on Kyle Pitts Under 700.5 receiving yards and Texans Over 5.5 wins.
Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles flushed our other two bets: Jets to win AFC East and Garrett Wilson Over 8.5 receiving TDs.
The five-year record is 12-8 heading into these four predictions:
Betting on the NFL?
* Daniel Jones Over 2,675.5 yards passing (-120): The Giants could be trailing a lot, they drafted Malik Nabers for Jones, and Danny Dimes might be less eager to run because of his knee injury.
* Patriots Under 4.5 wins (+110): It will be fun for fans of all teams to watch the utter destruction of the Patriots in Year 1 after Bill Belichick. They have the second-hardest schedule per Sharp Football.
* Keon Coleman Over 650.5 yards (-115): Josh Allen will need a new favorite target with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. The rookie from Florida State fits the Bill.
* Chargers Over 8.5 wins (-160): The Bolts lost a lot of firepower but Jim Harbaugh will build a more rugged group around Justin Herbert. Lots of potential W’s on the second-easiest schedule.
