The Triple Crown reaches its conclusion with the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, but there’s quite a headliner at Saratoga on Friday night.
The 2026 Acorn Stakes features a field of just five horses, but it’s an elite group of 3-year-old fillies who will be battling against one another.
No. 5 Always a Runner (4-5) is the headliner, and it speaks to this horse’s quality that she’s an odds-on favorite in a field this talented. Last seen winning the Kentucky Oaks on Derby Weekend, Always a Runner is undefeated in three races, and her speed figures have improved each time out, culminating with her dynamic performance at the Oaks.
Always a Runner is one of four entrants making the trip from the Oaks to the Acorn, and the two horses that finished on the podium with her, No. 3 Meaning (3-1) and No. 2 Counting Stars (9-2), are also in the field.
Logic would dictate most of the action at the window for the Acorn will land on Always a Runner, but Meaning is likely to be the horse that attracts the most money from punters who want to take a stand against an odds-on favorite since she finished second at the Oaks.
I’d go in a different direction.
2026 Acorn Stakes pick
To win: No. 1 Prom Queen (7-2)
Your options are obviously limited in a five-horse race and they become even more so when you’re dealing with heavy chalk.
But there is one horse that stands out as a value pick in this field.
On paper, Prom Queen’s fifth-place performance at the Kentucky Oaks pales in comparison to Always a Runner, Meaning, and Counting Stars, but she was dealing with all sorts of issues at Churchill Downs that day, needing to go out wide on the final turn and make up ground from the back of the pack.
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She ultimately ran out of real estate, but the fact that she was able to overcome so many issues and still finish within five lengths of Always a Runner was as impressive as any other horse in that race, save for the winner.
A better trip and a slight step forward will make Prom Queen a worth adversary for Always a Runner, and you’re getting a much better price.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
