Democratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico eked out a shocking 3-point lead over GOP foe Ken Paxton in a new poll amid mounting Republican anxiety over the Lone Star race.
Talarico edged out Paxton 51% to 48% in a Fox News poll of registered voters last week that also showed Gov. Greg Abbott in a close matchup against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 49%.
Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas in some three decades and have long dreamed of flipping the state’s Senate seat blue. They came close in 2018 when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) squeaked out a win over Beto O’Rourke by about 2.5 percentage points.
But now they’re hoping that a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections coupled with Paxton’s baggage will get them over the finish line.
Talarico has a 0.9 percentage point edge over Paxton in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.
Dems need to flip four seats to retake control of the Senate. They had traditionally been eyeing North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska. But none of those races are a slam dunk and Democrats are worried they could lose a seat in Michigan.
Keeping Texas in play could prove to be a valuable alternative. Democrats are also faring more competitively than usual in the Iowa Senate race.
Paxton, the state attorney general, faced a bruising primary challenge from incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who argued that his opponent would be vulnerable in a general election. Ultimately, President Trump endorsed Paxton.
The state AG had been indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 before becoming Texas’ top prosecutor. Ultimately, he reached a pretrial diversion agreement to throw out those charges.
In 2023, he was impeached over allegations that he obstructed justice in that securities fraud case, made false statements against whistleblowers, gave preferential treatment to a donor, and misappropriated public resources, amongst other transgressions.
Paxton survived impeachment proceedings in the state Senate in a narrow 16–14 vote.
His former wife, Angela Allen, divorced him following revelations that he cheated on her. Among the accusations he faced was that he used his role as attorney general to aid real estate developer and campaign donor Nate Paul.
Paxton was also accused of pushing Paul’s company to hire a mistress of his.
To combat Talarico, Republicans have sought to paint him as a hardcore woke lefty, seizing on past comments where he suggested that God is nonbinary and that there are six sexes.
Fox News’ poll found that 59% of Texas voters have serious concerns about Paxton’s character, eclipsing the 47% who fear Talarico is too extreme.
The survey was conducted from July 23-27 and sampled 1,006 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
