The Texans enter Week 1 as slight home underdogs against the Bills in what could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game.
I’ll gladly take the points with one of the NFL’s most talented defenses that looked dominant against this same Buffalo offense last November.
Houston gave Josh Allen fits when these teams met last season, sacking the Bills quarterback eight times and forcing three total turnovers in a 23-19 victory.
Most of the core of that dominant unit is back, including Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock, giving DeMeco Ryans another defense capable of making life difficult for even the league’s best quarterbacks.
The Texans also have a better chance of taking some pressure off fourth-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who in 2025 looked far from the budding star he appeared to be during his rookie year this season.
Over the offseason, they added David Montgomery to a backfield that already includes Woody Marks, adding some depth to a backfield that lacked punch a year ago.
The duo gets a favorable opening matchup against a Buffalo defense that struggled against the run last year, surrendering 5.1 yards per carry and 136.2 rushing yards per game, including 108 on 26 attempts versus the Texans’ backfield.
Stroud remains the biggest variable, but there is reason to believe the fourth-year quarterback can bounce back after an uneven 2025 season.
Betting on the NFL?
With an elite defense, an improved rushing attack, and home-field advantage, Houston has enough to keep this game tight and potentially win the heavyweight matchup outright.
The play: Texans +1.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
