We’re about to witness the deepest playoff field in WNBA history.
A reasonable case could be made for all eight teams reaching the Finals if things fall into place for their group. Anything can happen in a best-of-three first-round series, and the gap between the top seed and the lowest seed is relatively small compared to previous seasons.
What’s even more fascinating is the perception of some teams entering the season versus their perception heading into the playoffs.
The Liberty were title favorites in May, and now they’re the No. 8 seed.
The Valkyries entered the season with 30/1 odds and finished with the second-best record in the ‘W.’
The Mystics were 80/1 in the preseason and nabbed the fifth seed in the postseason.
The Lynx are the championship favorites with +110 odds to win it all, a well-deserved spot for the team with the best record in the league. But the books seem to be undervaluing two teams in particular.
With all the hype around the Lynx this season, it feels like the Aces, the reigning champions, have flown under the radar.
Vegas finished the season with the second-best offensive rating in the league thanks to another brilliant offensive season from A’ja Wilson. She can get a bucket whenever she wants and is still adept at guarding every position on the floor, yet the Aces’ title odds are priced at +480, which is slightly higher than their +440 odds before the season.
WNBA championship odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | +110 |
| Las Vegas Aces | +480 |
| Golden State Valkyries | +650 |
| Atlanta Dream | +700 |
| Indiana Fever | +950 |
| New York Liberty | 14/1 |
| Washington Mystics | 80/1 |
| Dallas Wings | 100/1 |
They’ll face the high-octane Fever in the first round and could face the Valkyries and their top-ranked defense if both teams make the second round.
Neither of those teams has the balance on both ends that the Aces can bring — at their best, the Fever have an average defense, and the Valkyries are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.
The other team that could be dangerous is the Dream. They join the Lynx and Aces as the only three teams that rank top five in offensive and defensive rating this season.
Angel Reese has been one of the best defensive players in the league this season, and she causes havoc in the paint, getting offensive rebounds and second-chance points.
If the Dream get through their first-round matchup against the Mystics, they can be confident in the fact that they’ve won the season series against the Liberty and Lynx, who are on their side of the bracket.
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The value on the Aces is too good to ignore. As long as Wilson and the Aces’ core are playing at this level, it’s hard to see any team stopping them in the series.
I’ll bet on them to win it all, but I’ll sprinkle a bet on the Dream to reach the Finals at +280 odds.
The Picks: Aces championship winner +480 | Dream reach Finals +280 (FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
