James Madison’s College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes took a huge hit last week with a loss to Appalachian State, but the Dukes (7-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) have no time to lick their wounds.
If James Madison is going to resurrect its season, it will need a bounce-back effort against Troy on Thursday night.
It’s not just about winning out for the Dukes, but they must do it in style if they’re going to get the attention of the Selection Committee.
Thursday offers an opportunity to do just that with James Madison installed as a 21-point favorite over the Trojans at Bridgeforth Stadium.
James Madison vs. Troy odds, prediction
The loss to Appalachian State may be too much to ignore in terms of the CFP, but it doesn’t change the fact that James Madison is one of the best teams in the Group of 6.
The Dukes are the highest-ranked (No. 29) G6 team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings, and they are the third-highest behind Boise State and New Mexico in Sagarin (No. 60).
The committee does take those factors into account when it comes time to hand out tickets to the big dance, but the Dukes will need to back up those lofty rankings with results.
Speaking of those rankings, no team in FBS had a lower one than Louisiana-Monroe before Week 7. Why does that matter? Because the Warhawks just earned their first win of the season (leaving Northern Illinois as the only team without a win in the country) over Troy. The Trojans were up 14-3, at home, with three minutes left in the fourth quarter before all hell broke loose.
It may be tough for James Madison to pick themselves up off the mat after a season-crushing loss, but it pales in comparison to what will be lingering in the Troy locker room.
And it’s not just the lack of wind in their sails that makes Troy cannon fodder for the Dukes on Thursday. The numbers paint this one as a mismatch, especially since Trojans QB Goose Crowder has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which has severely limited his output.
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The senior signal-caller is just 15-for-30 for 115 yards with one interception over his last two outings.
Troy’s offense, which ranks outside the top 100 in both points per game and yards per play, will have quite a difficult time keeping up with James Madison, which is highly incentivized to run this score up.
The Play: James Madison -21 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
