Fernando Mendoza waited nine weeks to make his first NFL start.
The reward for all that patience? A Sunday afternoon with the Seattle Seahawks and Mike Macdonald, one of the NFL’s sharpest defensive minds. Judging by what he’s done to rookie quarterbacks, somebody in the scheduling department owes the kid an apology.
Which brings us, naturally, to Kenny Pickett.
Go ahead and roll your eyes.
Somewhere in the Steelers’ archives is a game from Pickett’s rookie year that ought to interest the Raiders. Nearly four years have passed since that night in Baltimore, and Pickett still owns something no other rookie starter has managed to get his hands on.
A win over a Mike Macdonald defense.
But more on that in a bit.
Macdonald went 5–1 against rookie starters as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator. He’s 4–0 as Seattle’s head coach. As for the four who drew him in their first NFL start, C.J. Stroud, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Bo Nix and Max Brosmer took 15 sacks, threw nine interceptions and went 16 quarters without a touchdown pass.
Nix scored the group’s only offensive touchdown. He ran it in himself.
If anybody in the Raiders’ building knows what Mendoza is walking into, it’s the guy sending in the plays. Klint Kubiak spent last season practicing against the Seahawks on the way to winning a Super Bowl with them. A tough draw for Mendoza, sure. A chance to learn something, too?
“It is, yeah. And every week in the NFL is tough, and this is the best defense in the NFL,” Kubiak said. “And again, he’s got to go do his job and not worry about a whole lot else. Everybody does their 1/11th and everyone around him elevates their play.”
Since Macdonald took over in 2024, rookies have averaged 4.5 yards per attempt against Seattle, according to Next Gen Stats. That’s two full yards fewer than against all other defenses and the lowest average among defenses facing at least 100 rookie attempts. In 174 dropbacks, rookies threw one touchdown pass and seven interceptions. Their success rate fell from 40.9 percent against everybody else to 29.9 against Seattle.
Does Macdonald send the house when he sees a rookie? Seattle has blitzed them on 29.3 percent of dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats, a shade above the NFL average of 28.7. What ought to get Mendoza’s attention is how those plays end. Rookies managed a 15.7 percent success rate against Seattle’s blitz, the lowest among defenses with at least 30 such dropbacks.
This season, Seattle has blitzed just 22.6 percent of opponent dropbacks, the league’s second-lowest rate. When it does blitz, opponents average 5.0 yards per attempt, the fewest against any defense in a season since 2018. Only 11.1 percent of those dropbacks produce an explosive play, the lowest rate in the NFL this year.
“They’re one of the best defenses in the league, so it’s going to be a great challenge,” Mendoza said. “I’m excited to do my 1/11th out there.”
Which brings us back to that Pickett tape. The other ten guys might want a look, too. That includes the Raiders offensive line and running back Ashton Jeanty.
On New Year’s Day in 2023, Pittsburgh handed the ball to Najee Harris 22 times. He ran for 111 yards. In all, they ran for 183 yards. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense held Baltimore to 13 points, and Pickett protected the ball.
With a little more than four minutes left, he took over at his own 20, down four.
Eleven plays later, Pickett found Harris for a 10-yard touchdown with 56 seconds left. Steelers 16, Ravens 13.
Nine weeks into the season, everybody wants to know what Fernando Mendoza can do for the Raiders. That old Steelers tape raises a pretty fair question for Sunday.
What can the Raiders do for him? How about run the ball and play some defense.
