On Sunday night, we’ll see two AFC playoff hopefuls square off as Joe Burrow’s Bengals visit Justin Herbert’s Chargers.
Burrow and Herbert were selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, and Burrow won the only prior meeting between the quarterbacks in 2021.
The Chargers are favored by 1.5 points at home, and the Over/Under is set at 47.5 points, with scoring to be expected at SoFi Stadium.
I have two picks for this game, including one team total and one player prop.
Let’s dive into the data and see where the advantage lies in what should be a thrilling prime-time matchup.
Bengals Over 23.5 points (-115, DraftKings)
Burrow is in the midst of what would be an MVP-caliber season were it not for the Bengals’ 4-6 record.
He’s tied for the league lead with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions, and he ranks second behind only MVP favorite Lamar Jackson in the all-encompassing EPA+CPOE metric.
Ja’Marr Chase, a top Offensive Player of the Year candidate, leads the NFL with 981 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Chargers boast the fifth-ranked pass defense DVOA this year, but they’ve faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
Though I greatly respect first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, I’m not totally sold on this group.
Los Angeles ranks just 29th in pressure rate, and Burrow has been lights out from a clean pocket all year.
Cincinnati will have star wide receiver Tee Higgins back in the lineup, while left tackle Orlando Brown’s status is still in question.
Regardless of whether or not Brown plays, I expect the Bengals’ fifth-ranked offense by EPA to succeed against a Chargers defense that hasn’t seen this caliber of opponent all year.
J.K. Dobbins Under 57.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)
One of the best stories of the early part of the season, Dobbins was an early frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year with his laundry list of past lower-body injuries.
Unfortunately, he’s begun to slow down in recent weeks.
Since Week 3, he ranks just 26th out of 28 qualified running backs with a 3.54 YPC rate and 25th with a 2.6 percent explosive rush rate.
The Bengals’ run defense has been exploited for much of the season, ranking just 31st in run defense success rate on the year, but it’s been far better in recent weeks thanks to improved health up front.
Betting on the NFL?
Since Week 5, Cincinnati has held opponents to the fifth-lowest explosive rush rate and 12th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Gus Edwards returned to the lineup last week and immediately saw 10 carries.
The Chargers will likely use Edwards to spell Dobbins more often to keep him healthy.
We could also see more of a pass-heavy game script for the Chargers here.
Since their Week 5 bye, they rank third in neutral pass play rate, and with the Bengals expected to put up points in bunches, the Chargers may need to open up the offense to keep pace.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
