An inside look at the Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship battle in Kansas City, Mo. on Sunday night:
Marquee matchup
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills secondary
Bills starting safety Taylor Rapp, who had to be carted off the field last week with a hip injury, is out for the game, which means rookie Cole Bishop starting in his place.
Kelce will be at least some of Bishop’s responsibility, which will be something to watch.
Bishop struggled in pass coverage this season, allowing 18 completions on 25 targets and a 127.4 pass rating when targeted.
Kelce, in the Chiefs’ three playoff wins over Buffalo, has 26 catches for 289 yards and five TDs.
He was, however, held in check in the teams’ regular-season meeting, catching just two passes for 8 yards.
The Bills often played bracket coverage on Kelce with two defenders in that game. Kelce will also see a lot of safety Damar Hamlin as well as Buffalo cornerbacks.
“He’s going to go down as the greatest tight end to ever play the game,” Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said this past week. “We’ve got to try to put a plan together as best we can to make sure that we at least keep him contained.”
Good luck with that.
Cann’s call
It’s Buffalo’s time.
The Bills have the more complete team, and they seem to have figured out how to close out games, which has been a previous issue for them in the postseason.
Josh Allen finally overcomes Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, and maybe the Bills finally win a Super Bowl after all these years.
Bills 30, Chiefs 28
Four downs
Special treatment? There’s been much hand-wringing of late about the referees’ kid-gloves handling of Patrick Mahomes when it comes to throwing flags for roughing the passer and late hits.
The Texans were penalized twice for hits against Mahomes in last week’s divisional round game that easily could not have been called. Both extended Chiefs scoring drives.
“We knew it was going to be us versus the refs,’’ said Texans DE Will Anderson Jr., who was flagged for a very questionable roughing-the-passer penalty in the game. Mahomes this week told reporters, “I don’t feel that way,’’ referring to special treatment from the refereeing crew.
The numbers would suggest differently.
Since the 2021 season, in the playoffs the Chiefs have been called for 36 penalties to 66 for their opponents.
Of those, Kansas City’s opponents have been flagged for seven roughing-the-passer penalties to one for the Chiefs, and 11 pass interference or defensive holding penalties to two for the Chiefs.
In the 11 playoff games in that span, the Chiefs have been called for fewer penalties than their opponents 10 times.
Turnover watch: These two teams turn the ball over the least of any in the league, so something may have to give in this game.
The Bills haven’t lost the turnover battle in 21 consecutive games.
Buffalo led the NFL in turnover margin this season by a landslide at plus-24, with Pittsburgh No. 2 at plus-16.
And, according to CBS, there have been 280 turnovers committed in the NFL since Week 12, and the Chiefs don’t have a single one of those, going eight consecutive games without a turnover — the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era, including playoffs.
On third thought: The Bills defense has struggled getting opposing offenses off the field.
The Ravens converted 7 of 10 third downs last week, marking the second time this season Buffalo has allowed an opponent to convert at least 70 percent of third-down attempts.
The Rams went 11-for-15 on third down in a 44-42 win on Dec. 8.
The Bills defense struggled in the regular season on third downs, allowing a 43.8 percent conversion rate, fourth-worst in the league.
On the run: The Bills own the better rushing attack.
The Chiefs ranked 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards and 29th in yards per attempt.
Their leading rusher was Kareem Hunt, who had 728 yards and seven TDs.
Isiah Pacheco, who had 310 rushing yards but missed 10 games with a leg injury, is a wild card of sorts, because if he’s healthy he can be dangerous.
The Bills ranked ninth in rushing yards, but first in rushing TDs with 32 thanks to James Cook’s 16 to go with his 1,009 rushing yards and Josh Allen’s 12.
Cook has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of the Bills’ past six games.
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson add key depth at running back, which the Chiefs don’t have.
The Bills last week rushed for 147 yards and three TDs on 36 carries against the Ravens’ No. 1 ranked rushing defense.
