LOS ANGELES — Fairly, there really is only one true baseball comp for Shohei Ohtani, and it’s the fellow with the candy bar, legendary appetite and 714 home runs.
So the most high profile matchup in this National League Championship Series isn’t really fair to Mets all-everything star Francisco Lindor, who impressively hung with Ohtani in the NL MVP race five solid months but lost after 1) Lindor suffered a rare injury that kept him out two weeks, and 2) Ohtani posted a fortnight for the ages.
That MVP race will go to Ohtani unanimously unless there’s some crazy hater of designated hitters among the 30 voters. That seems about as unlikely than the Mets’ wonderful and unexpected run here to baseball’s final four.
But now, heading into this NLCS, Lindor may actually hold the edge among the biggest of the superstars. Ohtani is showing a winning personality now that he’s moved close to Hollywood, but frankly, he looks off his game at the moment, doing almost nothing since hitting that majestic homer in Game 1 off Dylan Cease in the Dodgers’ just-concluded Division Series.
(Look away Dodgers fans.)
I received a two-word text in Game 5 from a trusted NL scout known for succinctness. “Ohtani stinks.”
That’s quite an exaggeration, but let me put it another way. Ohtani, who raked vs. the Mets this year (1.143 OPS), definitely looked lost in the deciding Game 5 (0-for-4, three strikeouts). That game was won on two homers by the Hernandez boys, Kiké and Teoscar, the $375.6 million free agent (counting posting fee) Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a trio of shutdown relievers, who represent the Dodgers’ real edge now.
So fairly, at the moment Lindor looks like the better player. He carried this Mets team almost literally on his back (which was ailing but obviously is all better now), transporting them into a postseason they never were supposed to make with the first greatest home run in franchise history (before Pete Alonso topped it by telling Milwaukee to hold my beer, and Lindor re-topped it by sending the Mets into this big-market, big-star NLCS in grand style).
So in the biggest matchup between the NL’s two $300M teams, Lindor beats the guy who comps to Babe Ruth.
But these aren’t really $300M teams due to Dodgers injuries and the 2023 Mets fire sale. The Dodgers have an absurd 10 pitchers on their 40-man roster out with injury, and the Mets have nearly $90M in dead money being paid mostly to two ex-stars (Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander) who only passed through Queens.
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These two mega-market teams spent big, but mostly made it here thanks to some very prudent decisions. The Mets rebuilt a rotation cost-efficiently by signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, lengthened their lineup by adding Jose Iglesias for a song ($1.5M to be exact) and gave Mark Vientos the promotion he deserved.
The Dodgers’ most cost-efficient play turned out to be Ohtani himself, who signed a $700M contract that’s the gift that keeps on giving for L.A. The 97 percent deferred deal is semi-officially called a $437.4M cost to L.A., but that’s only if the Guggenheim Partners who own the Dodgers and invest professionally earn 4 percent on $680M in deferred money. A monkey with a dartboard (and maybe even me) beats that.
The Guggenheim folks must be thanking their lucky stars. Even though the Dodgers are the long-running champions of contract deferment, one Dodgers big insisted to me that they “wouldn’t have the balls” to suggest 97 percent deferment of anyone’s money. Anyway, if they do average (for them) and make 10 percent on the deferments, they figure that deal about pays for itself. (I’ll take their word for it.)
And that doesn’t even count the extra bucks Ohtani makes for them in assorted off-field endeavors and overall good will. And after pit-stopping 45 miles down I-5 in Anaheim, Ohtani owns this town.
The ultra deferred deal works OK for Ohtani since he reportedly earns about that same $60M-plus annually in off-field endorsements (“New Balancing” things out). But the Dodgers win the matchup of money since current king of Queens Lindor’s $341M contract ranks as just a regular great deal.
The other high-profile player matchup might go to the Mets, too, at least now. Freddie Freeman and Alonso are two of the toughest folks going, but Freeman is currently playing on one ankle. And Alonso is hot after altering his approach.
The Mets hold a big edge in the rotation even if their multi-continent courtship of the clutch Yamamoto failed miserably. The Dodgers rotation currently is thinner than the women parading down Rodeo Drive. But if it’s a bullpen game, look away Mets fans.
“The Mets pen will be their downfall. You can get away with it in a short series, but in seven it’s too much to overcome,” my scout says. “They have Mets Magic now, but the Mets are short in the pen.”
The Mets look competitive or better at the moment in the most high-profile matchups. But the celebrated Dodgers possess little edges in lower profile spots, and that’s what’s worrisome now.
