No. 8 Georgia and No. 9 Saint Louis will get the national spotlight on the opening day of March Madness with the primetime spot on CBS.
The No. 8 vs. No. 9 games are always the most unpredictable in the Round of 64.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the No. 9 seeds have an 83-77 record, the only lower seed with a winning record over that 40-year span.
The odds for the game reflect how close this matchup has been historically.
Georgia is a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM, with 64 percent of bettors picking the Bulldogs on the spread.
Georgia vs. Saint Louis prediction, best bet
The SEC sent 10 teams to the NCAA Tournament, and you could make a strong argument that it was the most competitive conference in the country, top to bottom.
The Bulldogs can point to impressive wins this season against teams like Arkansas and Alabama as a reason why they could be in for a deep run.
That said, this same team lost to Ole Miss in the second round of the SEC tournament and trailed by 23 points in the second half before a spirited comeback.
Georgia can be efficient on offense and cause havoc on defense — they rank 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and are tied for 32nd in steals per game — but their biggest test will be defending the 3-point line.
The Billikens are one of the best shooting teams in the country — second in 3-point percentage and 64th in 3-point rate — with a center in Robbie Avila who is adept at playing inside and outside.
Avila is shooting 61 percent on 2s and 41 percent on 3s, along with a team-high 4.1 assists per game.
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He’s not the only hot shooter on the team.
Five of Saint Louis’ top eight rotation players, including Avila, are shooting above 40 percent from beyond the arc on at least three attempts per game.
This game is expected to be high-scoring with the full-game total sitting at 169.5, but my focus is on the first half.
Georgia had the fourth-highest average point total in first halves this season (42.7), and Saint Louis ranked 20th (40.5).
The combination of the Bulldogs’ pace and the Billikens’ 3-point shooting should produce some early fireworks.
The Pick: 1H Over 79.5 (-105, BetMGM)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
