Kicking off the College Football five-game slate of New Year’s Eve bowl games are No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) and No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2) in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
This top 25 showdown features several award winners across both rosters.
Starting with the Commodores’ SEC Offensive Player of the Year and Heisman Trophy finalist, quarterback Diego Pavia.
The Hawkeyes’ offensive line was recognized for its ability to protect Mark Gronowski and rewarded with the Joe Moore Award. Logan Jones won the Rimington Trophy, which is given to the nation’s top offensive linemen.
In a matchup of good defense versus an even better offense, Vanderbilt is favored by 5.5 points, with the over/under sitting at 46.5 total points.
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction, best bet
Both teams enjoy playing to their strengths, but on paper, they can cancel each other out.
Iowa’s potent rushing attack accounts for around 177 yards per game on the ground. Gronowski, like Pavia, is exceptionally mobile and led the Hawkeyes with 15 rushing touchdowns.
To counter, the Commodores ranked 15th in rushing defense, limiting the opposition to 103.2 rushing yards per contest. Vanderbilt would want to force Gronowski to stay in the pocket and make plays with his arm, something he doesn’t do too often.
Gronowski has never topped 200-plus yards passing, even in Iowa’s season-opening win over UAlbany, the South Dakota State transfer had only 44 yards passing.
The Hawkeyes would want to avoid giving Vanderbilt a short field because if there’s one thing Pavia can do, it’s score and make splash plays.
He led the SEC with 27 passing touchdowns and a sky-high completion percentage of 71.2. Coming into Wednesday’s game, Pavia leads the Power Four in total offense, accounting for 334.8 yards.
The Commodores’ offense comes in red-hot, scoring 45 points or more in their last three games against solid SEC opponents.
Sedrick Alexander ran for three touchdowns in Vanderbilt’s season finale win over rival Tennessee. Tre Richardson had five receiving touchdowns over Vandy’s last three games and, alongside Junior Sherril, can adlib routes when Pavia scrambles.
Betting on College Football?
Iowa’s strong defense ranks in the top 10 in opponent points per game (15.9) and yards per game (279.4). In November, they held No. 5 Oregon and Dante Moore to just 16 points.
However, a trend within Tim Beck’s second-half offense has influenced my betting angle. Maybe it’s the North Mexico State connection, but Beck and Pavia like to flip the switch after the second quarter.
Vanderbilt ranks second in the FBS, averaging 20.5 second-half points per contest, and specifically in the third quarter, where the Commodores put up 10.6 points.
A second-half team total of 13.5 is feasible for Pavia and the Commodores even with John Mackey Award winner Eli Stowers opting out of this game.
Expect the Commodores’ scoring prowess to hit a second gear and go over in the latter half of this bowl game.
The Play: Vanderbilt over 13.5 2nd Half team total points (-115, DraftKings)
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