Latest California governor odds reveal who leads with hours to go

Just hours before the results of Tuesday’s primary for the California gubernatorial race start rolling in, one candidate is seeing his odds to win skyrocket dramatically.

Democratic front-runner Xavier Becerra had a whopping 70% chance of winning the race as of about 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday, according to betting platform Polymarket.

Democratic challenger Tom Steyer’s odds paled in comparison, coming in at just 18%. Republican front-runner Steve Hilton’s odds sat at 7% on the betting site.

Since May 4, Becerra has seen his odds steadily climb upward as he separates himself from the rest of the crowded Democratic field.

It marks an astounding turnaround for Becerra, who’s polling numbers at the beginning of the election cycle sat in the single digits.

After ex-Congressman Eric Swalwell — who led the Democratic field only a few months ago — suspended his bid due to allegations of inappropriate sexual behavior, it appeared much of his base shifted to Becerra.

Many pundits had expected a portion of Swalwell’s base to go to progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, but it hasn’t proven to be enough so far.

Steyer, who has been polling just behind Becerra, has gone on the attack against the front-runner more frequently in recent weeks.

Both Becerra and Steyer traded legal threats over an ad that portrayed Becerra’s connection to a corruption scheme. Becerra was not named in the related indictment.

Despite the millions Steyer has spent on his campaign, he has seen his odds diverge from Becerra’s since May 4, according to Polymarket. He went from having a 39% chance of winning down to just a 15% chance.

“When you’ve got millions of dollars as a billionaire, you can put up pretty much any commercial you want,” Becerra said of Steyer on Monday. “We’re not gonna rely on that. We’re gonna rely on our momentum.”

Here is the latest on the 2026 California governors race

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