If you’re looking for a bigger edge or perhaps a long shot prop on this Sunday Wild Card slate, you’re in the right place.
Three games of player props should provide plenty of betting victories this weekend.
That starts with Broncos vs. Bills on Sunday and continues on with the conclusion of Buccaneers vs. Commanders.
Typically, a wager on any given prop could be one unit on a side (up to -120) and a half unit for any of the lesser likely wagers this weekend.
Do not risk more than two units on any given player.
Wild Card weekend player props
Broncos vs. Bills picks
Josh Allen over 40.5 rushing yards (-120, BetMGM) | anytime touchdown scorer (-125, DraftKings) | 12+ run attempts (+550, Hard Rock Sportsbook)
Expect a heavy dose of Josh Allen this weekend in a game that I anticipate to be plenty competitive.
The Bills defense is rated No. 27 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt to end the season, making it all the more important for Allen to use his legs and produce on Sunday.
In the playoffs last season, Allen ran for 72 yards and 74 yards in two games, scoring a touchdown in each and taking 12 rushing attempts and eight rushing attempts respectively.
We love quarterback rushing props in the playoffs; this isn’t the last you’ll be betting on this weekend.
Audric Estime over 21.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) | anytime touchdown scorer (+370, DraftKings) | 2+ touchdowns (50/1, BetRivers)
Quietly, rookie Audric Estime is getting quite the look at running back by coach Sean Peyton.
He has seen at least nine carries in three straight weeks, scoring a touchdown in two of those three, and has the most red zone carries of any player on the team in that time span.
With Estime getting an increasing workload in Denver, you can safely bet his overs; he’s cashed his long shot rushing prop in two of three and gone over 21.5 rushing yards in three straight.
Estime is the preferred option in non-passing, short-yardage situations.
Eagles vs. Packers picks
Josh Jacobs under 22.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
This line is a bit confusing, as Josh Jacobs has never been a major receiving threat from the backfield.
It also appears that his role in the passing game in September and October is going by the wayside, as he’s had several zero-reception games.
Emmanuel Wilson has seen increased work for the Packers as well as Chris Brooks.
It’s a lot of mouths to feed for Green Bay and there are too many zero catch games this year that his passing work role is a bit overstated at this juncture of the season.
Jordan Love over 1.5 rushing attempts (-114, FanDuel)
As far as I can tell sportsbooks are undervaluing the willingness of a quarterback to run in playoff situations.
Jordan Love has not cashed this prop in four games, but he did run five times in a loss to the 49ers last year.
This one will be very close, I expect Love to not shy away from running this weekend.
Buccaneers vs. Commanders picks
Jayden Daniels over 48.5 rushing yards (-130, BetMGM) | 80+ (+420, FanDuel)
The roadmap to victory for the Washington Commanders is centered around their star quarterback Jayden Daniels who sat out most of last weeks game against the Cowboys.
Daniels has been banged up after taking some vicious hits when scrambling this season.
Eventually that will need to stop if he wants to have a sustained NFL career and not get hit out of the league.
For now, we’ll target his willingness to run by betting on his run total.
He has cleared 48.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games that he played to completion, and has cleared the top half of this ladder in two straight.
The last time Daniels played the Buccaneers in his NFL debut, he rushed for 88 yards on 16 attempts.
Slam Daniels’ rushing prop.
Betting on the NFL?
Baker Mayfield over 3.5 rush attempts (-110, ESPN BET)
His yardage prop is a bit too high for my liking but his attempts are where the value is.
The star quarterback for the Buccaneers ran wild last week in near loss to the woeful Buccaneers and he should be ready to let his legs loose again on Sunday night.
His nine carries for 68 yards were a season high and I expect him to do so again in this one. Remember, kneel downs count if the Buccaneers kneel at half or find themselves in victory formation late.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
