Paul Skenes needs his speed back.
Coming off his worst month as a major leaguer, Skenes showed slight progress in his first August start on Wednesday.
Skenes allowed three runs on two hits and four walks against six strikeouts, though it wasn’t enough in a 4-2 loss to the Brewers tin Milwaukee.
July was a slog for Skenes, posting a 6.25 ERA over six starts, and the last one was the worst of his career: Seven earned runs in four innings on the 31st.
The poor stanza follows a month-by-month decline that the LSU and Air Force product has seen throughout 2026.
Skenes’ ERA in the month of April was 1.89 and has risen each month since.
After April, his ERA came to a still solid 2.87 in May, then 3.58 in June, before a horrid 6.25 in July, where he allowed 22 earned runs in six starts.
“It’s been an interesting year, a little bit,” Skenes said after his July 31 outing. “But it could be a lot worse. We’ll figure it out. I’m going to figure it out. But it could be a lot worse.”
One reason for this has been a noticeable downtick in velocity. Skenes’ fastball is averaging 97 mph this season, down from 98.2 in 2025 and 98.8 in his rookie season.
He also hasn’t thrown a single pitch over 100 mph this season after throwing over 100 of them a season ago.
In fact, prior to Wednesday night’s start, Skenes hadn’t thrown a pitch over 98 mph in five starts, according to Codify Baseball.
“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes said during the All-Star break. “I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level.”
The Pirates ace’s off-speed have also been an issue.
After ranking in the 100th and 98th percentiles for Skene’s off-speed pitch quality and run value ranked in the 100th and 98th percentiles respectively, last season, they have dropped immensely to the 17th percentile in 2026.
According to Fangraphs, hitters are also on time on Skenes’ pitches 45-percent of the time this season, compared to 39% last season.
It doesn’t help that the Pirates’ defense has been below average once again this year, holding a minus-12 record in outs above average and ranking sixth-worst in MLB at turning batted balls into outs.
