SAN ANTONIO — Contrary to popular belief, Juan Soto is far from the only star free agent. In fact, it’s a pretty well-rounded class, very strong on starting pitchers, and solid in most spots. Here’s our top 40, with contract predictions (based on conversations with expert consultants).
1. Juan Soto: With almost all big-market teams involved, including the Mets and incumbent Yankees, he will score the most valuable contract ever when considering Shohei Ohtani’s $700M deal is valued at $437.4M (union valuation) due to the $680M in deferrals. At least the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox and surprising Rays are also in the biggest derby. $630M, 14 years.
2. Corbin Burnes: One of the most consistent, durable starters around. He didn’t pitch for strikeouts this year but was just as effective. The Orioles will try to keep him, but it will probably be hard with at least the Yankees, Mets and other big teams involved. All the high-revenue AL East teams plus the Giants and Dodgers are expected to play for the southern California product. $210 million, 7 years.
3. Willy Adames: The athletic shortstop will be shooting for $200M-plus. The Dodgers, Giants and Braves were among pursuers in trade discussions. Willingness to move to 3B could aid his market. $180M, 7 years.
4. Alex Bregman: Big second half — 17 of 26 homers came in the final three months — plus nice postseason record and rep aid excellent all-around player. He’d consider leaving Houston (unlike his longtime teammate Jose Altuve), but decent chance the Astros do everything they can to keep him. $170M, 7 years.
5. Max Fried: His 139 ERA-plus is eighth best all-time. The Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Giants and his hometown Dodgers are probable players. Red Sox need a lefty. $166M, 6 years.
6. Blake Snell: He has a much-improved market after a second straight great season and especially big second half. Decent chance he winds up back in San Francisco. The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox are spots that make sense, too. $160M, 5 years.
7. Pete Alonso: Tough and clutch, he’s coming off a big postseason performance. The incumbent Mets are logical as he’s a beloved, homegrown player, but the Yankees and others have interest. One issue: Teams don’t like to spend as big as they used to on 1B. Matt Chapman’s $151M, six-year deal could help as a comp. (And maybe Chapman’s Giants will ultimately make sense.) $152M, 6 years.
8. Anthony Santander: He has big power and is a great clubhouse guy. Eight teams are already in, including many that are shooting first for Soto. $100M, 5 years.
9. Jack Flaherty: The alleged lower-back issue didn’t bother Fried’s high school teammate in big starts vs. Mets and Yanks. He took a major step forward this year as he tries to regain his 2019-21 form. $80M, 4 years.
10. Sean Manaea: He will decline the qualifying offer and cash following his very nice year and big second half in Queens. But he loves New York, and he and the Mets are talking. The Orioles (and others) also have been fans. $72M, 4 years.
11. Yusei Kikuchi: Huge second half in Houston is triggering a very big market after a weak start in Toronto. The Astros are trying, but he seems more likely to wind up elsewhere. $68M, 4 years.
12. Teoscar Hernandez: He made clear he wants to be back in LA during his outstanding postseason run. (Who wouldn’t?) His one-year deal worked out as he greatly enhanced his status. $60M, 3 years.
13. Christian Walker: The Diamondbacks surely want him back. While he didn’t finish big, he’s an outstanding all-around player. $60M, 3 years.
14. Tanner Scott: His popularity at the trade deadline provided an indication of what kind of market he should have. Any big-market team could make sense for this top closer. $54M, 4 years.
15. Luis Severino: The Mets made the right call to extend the qualifying offer, which he seems likely to turn down. A big plus for any clubhouse, too. $48M, 3 years.
16. Nate Eovaldi: Longtime starter is beloved in every clubhouse he’s called home, too. The Braves and incumbent Rangers are among interested parties. $40M, 2 years.
17. Walker Buehler: The Dodgers don’t make mistakes, but did they do him a favor not giving him the qualifying offer, thus not attaching draft-pick compensation to a team that signs him? They considered it, but they have so many great starters coming back and may be aiming even higher than this World Series hero. $40M, 2 years.
18. Tyler O’Neill. Here’s another guy who left St. Louis and improved his standing with a very nice year in Boston. $39M, 3 years.
19. Jeff Hoffman. The Mets hit the Phillies reliever, but hardly anyone else did. He certainly has the ability to close. $36M, 3 years.
20. Nick Pivetta: He has a solid market and could have a quick deal after Boston gave him the qualifying offer. $34M, 2 years.
21. Carlos Estevez: This 100-mph thrower in the Phillies bullpen also got hit by the team from Queens (Francisco Lindor anyway). $33M, 3 years.
22. Gleyber Torres: He was actually quite good from the second half on. He could wind up doing a “pillow deal” (one-year reset) but maybe two is a good compromise. The Giants, Blue Jays, Mariners and Royals are among teams that could work. $32M, 2 years.
23. Clay Holmes: Once out of the closer role, he looked very good. A bit unlucky this year. $30M, 3 years.
24. Kirby Yates: Was absolutely brilliant out of the Rangers bullpen. Age — 38 at the start of next season — is the only negative. $28M, 2 years.
25. Jurickson Profar: We have to figure the Padres figure a way to keep him around after his big year. $26M, 2 years.
26. Joc Pederson: His October record plays, as does a fine season in Arizona. $22M, 2 years.
27. Nick Martinez: The right-handed starter seems likely to take the qualifying offer from the Reds. $21.05M, 1 year.
28. Frankie Montas. He’s never quite fulfilled potential and had an up-and-down season with the Reds. $22M, 2 years.
29. Jose Quintana: He showed a lot of his old self in the second half. $22M, 2 years.
30. Shane Bieber: The Guardians make sense to keep the former Cy Young winner. $20M, 2 years.
31. Matthew Boyd: He turned his career around in Cleveland. $20M, 2 years.
32. Ha-Seong Kim: Terrific middle-infield defender for the Padres is said to be very popular on the market. The Giants and Dodgers are among many that make sense. $20M, 2 years.
33. Kyle Higashioka: Big power surge for the Padres in October can’t hurt. $16M, 2 years.
34. Tommy Kahnle: Remove those three batters vs. LA and it’s a great year. $16M, 2 years.
35. Paul Goldschmidt: If he can have one or two more good years, he’s a Hall candidate. $13M, 1 year.
36. Max Scherzer: He doesn’t need the money, but he sure does have the desire. $12M, 1 year.
37. Justin Verlander: Didn’t pitch much this season, but he’s got to make the same as Scherzer. $12M, 1 year,
38. Alex Verdugo: Well, we know it won’t be Boston. $12M, 1 year.
39. Michael Conforto: Had solid season for the Giants but might benefit from one-year deal. $11M, 1 year.
40. David Robertson: Feels like he’s going to pitch forever. $10M, 1 year.
