How many gifts can one team receive?
The Yankees hardly could have designed a better road to trying to win their first pennant since 2009.
First, the Orioles and, especially, the Astros were knocked out in the wild-card round, leaving just AL Central teams.
Then the Tigers and Guardians went five games, forcing Cleveland to have to overtax the strength of its team — the bullpen — while eliminating Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal.
Even if Detroit had won, its ace would not have been viable to start until Games 3 and, if necessary, 7, but he is the kind of lefty who has overwhelmed the Yankees this year and might have given a path for the Tigers to produce two of the needed four victories.
Instead, the Yankees get the Guardians. Including their four-game Division Series ouster of the Royals, the Yankees are 27-8 against the AL Central this year, outscoring the competition 179-103 — no team had a better record against a division this year than the Yanks vs. the AL Central.
The Yanks and Guardians have met six previous times in the playoffs. The Yankees have won the last three. That began with a 2017 upset of the defending AL champions and top-seeded Cleveland. That also began a stretch during which the Yankees have eliminated an AL Central team in the playoffs six straight times.
The Yankees beat the Guardians two of three in each of their two series this year. Cleveland scored just 22 runs in the six games and nine came in extra innings with the ghost runner, and both Guardians wins came in that situation.
Can Cleveland win? Sure, playoffs are fickle. The Guardians have talent, especially in relief. Here is a breakdown of what the Yankees can expect:
The pen
A scout watched Stephen Vogt heavily use his main relievers — notably Scott Barlow, Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Nick Sandlin and Cade Smith — in the early weeks of the season and thought it was a rookie manager making a mistake, that there would be a big price on the back end.
“I was so wrong,” Scout 1 said.
Barlow pitched in 63 games, yet did not fare well late and was released on Sept. 11. Sandlin appeared in 68 games with a 3.75 ERA, but was left off the Division Series roster.
There were 12 pitchers in the majors who appeared in 74 or more games this season — four were Guardians: Clase, Gaddis, Herrin and Smith. Then Herrin and Smith appeared in all five games against the Tigers in the Division Series and Clase and Gaddis in four.
That would seem to be an overworked group that should play to the Yankees’ benefit. There was a day off between Games 4 and 5. Still, over those two games, Gaddis threw 63 pitches, Smith 57 and Clase 40.
Clase closed out the Division Series with a two-inning save Saturday — the only other time he went two innings this year was Aug. 20 in shutout work against the Yankees.
“I just don’t believe they are going to be tired and worse,” Scout 1 said. “I saw them pitch with a heavy workload all year and they kept their stuff. I still think the theory against Cleveland better be to get a lead against their starters because you don’t want that pen to come in with a lead.”
The big four of Clase, Gaddis, Herrin and Smith combined to appear in 301 regular-season games and have a 1.49 ERA in 290 innings with a 27.7 strikeout percentage and 6 percent walk rate.
“[The southpaw] Herrin will be used for big lefty hitters and Vogt is showing he will use Smith wherever he thinks the big set-up moment is from the fourth inning on,” Scout 1 said. “You can’t get caught unaware thinking [Smith isn’t going to be used until late].”
Smith has one of the toughest-to-hit fastballs in the majors. Herrin and Smith have combined to face 243 lefty batters this year, including the playoffs, and have yet to allow a homer.
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Clase had an MLB-best .282 OPS allowed to lefty hitters this year (minimum 100 plate appearances), Herrin was second at .385 and Smith was ninth at .453. So the Guardians have a lot of options for Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Alex Verdugo and Austin Wells.
Clase allowed four earned runs against the Tigers between Games 2 and 4 —or one fewer than he did in 74 ¹/₃ innings this season when overall he had a 0.61 ERA. In the modern era (since 1900), the only pitcher who threw 70 innings and had a lower OPS against than Clase’s .392 was the .374 of Eric Gagne in 2003.
“[Clase] made one mistake in the Division Series by throwing one slider too many and too good to Kerry Carpenter [who hit it for a three-run homer],” Scout 2 said. “The guy throws 100 mph cutters and 91 mph sliders and doesn’t make many mistakes, so if you miss one [of his mistakes], you are probably missing the only one you are going to get.”
The starters
For years, the strength of the Guardians was producing strong rotation arms. But not in 2024.
Shane Bieber made two starts and needed Tommy John surgery. Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, who had strong rookie campaigns in 2023, regressed. Triston McKenzie, who once looked like the future ace, did not make it back well from an injury-wrecked 2023 (5.11 ERA in 16 starts this year). Carlos Carrasco did not recapture the magic from his first stint with Cleveland.
The one constant has been Tanner Bibee (31 starts, 3.47 ERA), who relies heavily on his slider. ALCS Game 1 scheduled starter Alex Cobb has only made four starts this year, including just three innings (two runs) in ALDS Game 3 and in the words of Scout 2, “He still has a good fastball, but he just hasn’t pitched a lot this year. So, no surprise, he had command issues [against Detroit].” Soto is 7-for-11 with two homers against Cobb.
Matthew Boyd is a wild card. He had Tommy John surgery in June 2023, did not sign with Cleveland until June 2024 and has good stuff, but limited endurance. But that is pretty much true of the entire Guardians rotation as Vogt clearly favors getting to the pen. Of the 44 innings against the Tigers, just 18 ¹/₃ were thrown by starters over five games.
The Guardians either will need a fourth starter in this series, such as Williams or Ben Lively, or a bullpen game.
“The Yankees have to do damage against the starters, it doesn’t take a genius to see that,” Scout 1 said.
Scout 2: “They are going to have to piece together games. That is who they are this year.”
The star
Jose Ramirez is probably going to finish top six for AL MVP for a sixth time in his stealth Hall-of-Fame career. He had 39 homers and 41 steals this season.
The switch-hitter had a 1.081 OPS vs. lefties and a .797 OPS against righties, then went 1-for-10 against Detroit as a lefty hitter.
“You can’t let Ramirez beat you — he is so clearly their best player,” Scout 1 said. “Ideally, you would turn him around to bat left-handed as much as possible and attack him at the bottom of the zone.”
The bugaboo is that Ramirez still hit 25 homers from the left side (12th in the majors) and will have two and as many as four games to take a shot at the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.
Ramirez went 3-for-16 (.188) in the Division Series against Detroit, but with a homer and three walks. And in 37 career postseason games, Ramirez has hit .236 with three homers and a .656 OPS.
“You know what [the Guardians] need? They need [Ramirez] to hit like his buddy [and former infield partner Francisco] Lindor,” Scout 2 said. “They need big at-bats from him like Lindor is having.”
The supporting cast
Scout 1: “After Ramirez, the rest of the lineup is manageable.”
Consider that the Guardians drew just nine walks in the Division Series — and three were intentional for Ramirez. He was intentionally passed 12 times in the regular season, the fourth most. But the Yankees issued just eight all year — the fourth fewest.
First baseman Josh Naylor was a good co-star to Ramirez with 31 homers and 108 RBIs. He has two postseason homers off Gerrit Cole, including a 2022 Division Series Game 4 shot in which he mocked the Yankees ace by miming like he was rocking a baby as he navigated the bases. His aggression can be used against him — 58 career postseason at-bats, zero walks.
Leadoff man Steven Kwan had two different seasons, hitting .352 with a .920 OPS in the first half and .206/.618 in the second. Then in the Division Series, Kwan went 11-for-21 (.524) while the rest of the Guardians were 28-146 (.192).
“I saw Kwan when he was hitting over .400 and I saw him struggling and I have seen him get hot again,” Scout 1 said. “To me, you have to stay on the outer half with him — the outer third. His strength is close [inside] — he does his damage there.”
In his first month after being a trade-deadline acquisition from the Nationals, Lane Thomas had no homers and a .443 OPS, then in September it was seven homers and an .855 OPS.
He then had two homers and nine of the Guardians’ 19 RBIs against the Tigers, notably hitting a grand slam off Skubal to give Cleveland the lead for good in a decisive Game 5.
The other stuff
The Guardians are a strong defensive team, particularly in the middle infield with shortstop Brayan Rocchio and especially second baseman Andres Gimenez.
Kwan also is a good left fielder and that high wall in left at Progressive Field and the limited foul territory down the line (as Detroit left fielder Riley Greene discovered in a big moment in Game 5) is limited. It emphasizes even more that the defensively superior Alex Verdugo will play over Jasson Dominguez for the Yankees.
The Guardians have an offensive profile similar to the Royals — low strikeout and walk totals and a willingness to be aggressive on the bases; keep a particular eye on Ramirez trying to swipe third — he did it seven times in 2024. They also will bunt for sacrifices and hits — a David Fry safety squeeze was a vital play in the Guardians staving off elimination in ALDS Game 4.
Cleveland will play platoons in right field with lefty-swinging Will Brennan and righty-swinging Jhonkensy Noel and at DH with lefty-swinging Kyle Manzardo and the righty Fry — and be aggressive seeking the platoon advantage during games.
Vogt has a strong shot at AL Manager of the Year by succeeding the historic Terry Francona and guiding the Guardians to an AL Central title and the No. 2 seed in his rookie year. Scout 2 praised, “The team plays like Vogt [a former major league catcher] did — lots of passion and smart.”
