A plan to end the stock market’s tariff tantrum is being circulated around the outer parameters of Trump World, On The Money has learned.
The idea emerged during last week’s sharp market selloff. It involves some sort of universal deal that settles tariff disputes with our biggest trading partners: Mexico, Canada and Europe. The first two are our largest export partners, followed by China and the UK. The talk is that they give into our demands for certain things, like stopping fentanyl from pouring across the northern and southern borders, and purchase more US manufactured goods, and we drop the levies.
But any such plan needs buy-in from the only person who matters: President Trump himself. And at least for now, the big guy isn’t buying it. He’s full steam ahead in imposing tariffs on major trading partners, which he thinks will do everything from plugging the budget deficit to reviving the rust belt manufacturing.
Or as one Trump adviser, who just looked at his 401(k), put it to me, “Unfortunately, this ain’t being discussed internally.”
That might change, of course. Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chair of his National Economic Council, said on Fox Business on Wednesday that countries are showing some willingness to adjust their tariffs on US goods to be less onerous. So maybe prospects of a deal could get things going.
If the stock market goes through another tariff-related bloodbath as it did last week, maybe the grand bargain gets placed in front of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent or Commerce chief Howard Lutnick, the two pointmen on the tariff agenda set to be unveiled on April 2.
One thing is certain: Even with the markets recovering a bit, the capricious and shapeshifting nature of the president’s tariff threats is no fun if you’re a stock trader, and it’s stoking worries about inflation and a recession as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
China, of course, is the biggest tariff boogeyman. US manufacturers constantly complain about facing obstacles tapping into China’s huge consumer market. It is currently facing a 10% tariff on all goods on top of those already imposed.
It’s the tariff situation with Mexico, Canada and Europe where traders and investors are finding the most difficulty pricing their models, hence last week’s market turmoil and this week’s tepid recovery. Trump seems to change the goalposts sometimes day by day. He threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports; a 25% metal tariff on metal imports that would hit the EU hard; another 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, while Canadian imports of energy and minerals get a bit of a reprieve with a tariff of “just” 10%.
He’s also suggested he’s willing to compromise if the other sides agree to concessions.
All the back-and-forth is keeping talk of a grand bargain of trade compromises circulating in Trump World, albeit now more quietly, now that stocks have recovered a bit, and Trump has more room to make good on his promises to equalize trade agreements and force countries to bend to our will.
An outside adviser who was weighing the tariff solution last week told On The Money he has shifted his focus away from a tariff solution to taxes because of Trump apparent opposition to a deal.
That might change, of course, if the markets go through another serious tariff tantrum, or trading partners truly come to the table to talk about a deal, and the grand tariff bargain starts looking less pie in the sky.
