Fresh off the best UFC card of the year, we head 2,000 miles north of South Beach to Winnipeg, Canada.
The fight card is headlined by Canadian Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burnes in a spot to showcase Malott in his home country.
UFC Winnipeg has 13 fights on it, assuming no last-minute cancellations, with six bouts projected by sportsbooks to end inside the distance.
It all begins at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the prelims, and the main card will begin at 8 p.m. ET.
UFC Winnipeg predictions
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott
Burns is on the wrong side of his career; he’s 40 years old and has a 22-9 record after losing four straight.
He finds himself as a massive underdog in this spot, with Malott coming in at -330 on the moneyline.
Malott has generally been solid since he got to the UFC, though he lost to Neil Magny kind of embarrassingly — Malott won the first two rounds by a massive margin and then suffered a TKO finish in the third round after gassing out.
Still, he’s rattled off three straight wins against legitimate competition, which includes a win over Kevin Holland last time out.
I forgive Malott for losing that fight to Magny; he’s improved since then, and Burns is declining dramatically at this point.
There’s no fun in laying -330 on the moneyline.
Instead, I’m targeting Malott to win and the fight to start round two in a same game parlay with odds coming in at -105.
I think Burns can still survive Round 1, but cardio has never been his strong suit and Malott will have to respect him for a few minutes before he starts pouring it on.
PREDICTION: Malott wins + fight starts round two (-105, DraftKings)
Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain has moved down to a new weight class.
Now at bantamweight (135 pounds), Jourdain opened his career as a lightweight (155 pounds) and has a chance to make waves in this new division.
Jourdain fought Shane Burgos, a massive lightweight, earlier in his career in an absolute war that he was winning before being finished late in the third round.
Now at bantamweight, I suspect Jourdain will look better than ever and have size advantages over many contenders.
Jourdain has two straight submission wins, and his front headlock series is lethal, but Phillips has never been submitted and is a grappler in his own right.
Target Jourdain by decision (+195, FanDuel) as Phillips has gone to four straight decisions and six of his last seven.
PREDICTION: Jourdain by decision (+195, FanDuel)
UFC Winnipeg full card picks
Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert: Nallo by KO/TKO (+235, BetRivers)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva: Jasudavicius by decision (-140, FanDuel)
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young: Young by decision (+205, BetRivers)
Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa: Barbosa wins in under 1.5 rounds (+235, DraftKings)
Julien Leblanc vs. Robert Valentin: Leblanc moneyline (+128, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam: Saricam moneyline (-160, DraftKings)
Melissa Croden vs. Daria Zhelezniakova: Fight goes the distance (-180, bet365)
Mitch Raposo vs. Allan Nascimento: Fight foes the distance (-135, BetMGM)
JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth: Aldrich by decision (+185, BetMGM)
John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin: Fight goes to decision (-140, bet365)
Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
