Xavier Becerra loses ground to Steve Hilton in California governor’s race: poll

Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Xavier Becerra has lost ground in a new California poll, giving Republican Steve Hilton a small boost as the race enters the final stretch toward November.

Becerra now has the support of 55% of likely voters, down from 61% in last month, according to a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll.

Hilton, meanwhile, has edged up one point, from 36% to 37%, shrinking Becerra’s once-commanding 25-point lead to 18 points.

The poll was conducted Aug. 3–9 among 2,310 California voters considered likely to cast ballots in November.

Even with the drop, Becerra continues to hold a substantial advantage over Hilton with less than three months to go before the general election.

The Democrat remains ahead across several of the state’s biggest population centers, including Los Angeles County, San Diego County, the Bay Area and the Central Coast.

Hilton has the advantage in more conservative regions, including the San Joaquin Valley and North Coast/Sierra, while Orange County and the Inland Empire remain much closer. 

“An 18-point lead still makes Becerra the clear favorite, and the narrowing from 25 points looks more like normal movement than a competitive race,” Matt Klink, a Republican strategist told the Post. “Hilton’s path requires a major shift among independents, a sustained focus on affordability and public safety, depressed Democratic turnout, and a serious Becerra mistake.”

The gubernatorial race was plagued by scandal, especially after allegations of sexual assault and rape involving former front-runner and Democratic hopeful Eric Swalwell came to light before the June primary. According to Klink, the best strategy Becerra has now is to keep a low profile.

“Becerra is playing hide and seek now, largely staying out of the public spotlight and avoiding anything even remotely controversial,” he said. “If the above doesn’t happen (all three together are a long shot), Becerra will win comfortably.”

The former California attorney general is also dodging questions. Becerra abruptly walked away from reporters recently after refusing to answer repeated questions about his record overseeing migrant children. He has not made any substantial media appearances since winning the primary.

However, Becerra maintains a sizable advantage among voters who do not identify with either major party, leading Hilton 58% to 30%. He has the backing of 88% of Democrats, while Hilton is supported by 91% of Republicans. 

The latest survey marks a notable change from the earlier polling.

In the May IGS survey, Becerra led a hypothetical matchup 52% to 31% among registered voters. Both candidates have since gained support, but Becerra’s standing among likely voters has slipped since the July PPIC survey even as Hilton has made a modest gain. 

Becerra’s personal ratings have also improved from May, with 49% viewing him favorably and 43% unfavorably. Hilton is underwater, with 39% favorable and 50% unfavorable. 

Still, the Republican has a steep climb ahead in a state where Democrats have a major built-in advantage.

“After the unsettled and chaotic primary, this is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and IGS co-director. “Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race.” 

The poll comes as both candidates seek to define themselves ahead of the general election.

Becerra, a former US Health and Human Services secretary and California attorney general, has emphasized Democratic priorities and opposition to President Trump.

Hilton, a former Fox News host, has campaigned on cutting taxes and regulations and attacking California’s high cost of living. Fifty-five percent of his supporters said they back him because of his traditionally Republican policies, while 28% said they liked him because he is outside California’s political establishment. 

The matchup between Trump-endorsed Hilton and former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is weighing a 2028 presidential bid, is slated for Nov. 3.

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